Manchester United vs Chelsea Prediction

There's no shortage of motivation for Man U on Thursday, as they seek a Champions League berth against hated rival Chelsea. The Blues, meanwhile, have been going through the motions for some time now, and our soccer betting picks don't sense an upset.

A Top-4 position and Champions League football hangs in the balance on Thursday, as Manchester United welcomes Chelsea to Old Trafford for their penultimate Premier League outing. 

The Red Devils need just one point from their final two fixtures to ensure a fourth-place finish in the league, with Liverpool sitting three points back and holding a vastly superior goal differential. But while Chelsea have nothing left to play for, they’ve lost just once in their last five trips to Old Trafford and have enough quality to put pressure on the hosts.

Will Frank Lampard’s men find a way to push Man United to the final day, or will Erik ten Hag lead his side back to the Champions League after just one season? We break down that and more in our Manchester United vs Chelsea picks and predictions for Thursday, May 25.

Manchester United vs Chelsea best odds

Manchester United vs Chelsea picks and predictions

Erik ten Hag announced on Wednesday morning that Marcus Rashford is likely to return for the Chelsea clash, and that’s huge news for Manchester United. He needs just one goal to become the first 30-goal scorer for the club since Robin van Persie achieved that mark in Sir Alex Ferguson’s final season in charge a full decade ago.

That’s major news for the Red Devils, as they’ve struggled to score goals all season without him in the lineup. Then again, they’ve been struggling in general over the past month or so. It’s been more than two months since ten Hag’s men have scored more than two goals in a match, and that required a red card as they defeated Fulham 3-1 in the FA Cup.

In the 13 matches since that outing, Manchester United have just 13 goals to their credit, having failed to score in five of those matches. But it hasn’t cost them many points at home thankfully, because their defense in front of the Old Trafford faithful has been stellar, to say the least. 

Manchester United are in the midst of a 28-match unbeaten run at home, which has included a stunning 17 clean sheets. Only Sevilla have scored in Man United’s last five home matches – and that came from two own goals. 

Why does this play into our best bet? Well, anybody who has been watching Chelsea over the past few months knows they are having issues scoring – but it’s been even worse away from home. Their 17 goals away from Stamford Bridge are fourth-fewest in the Premier League, and while they’ve scored seven goals in their last eight away fixtures, six of those came in two matches against Bournemouth and Leicester.

Chelsea have been shut out in nine of their last 15 away matches, and now have little to play for except pride. They also are dealing with numerous injuries to key players, including fullbacks Reece James and Ben Chilwell. With those two sidelined, along with midfielder Mason Mount and forward Joao Felix, their creativity in the final third has been truly stifled.

Manchester United desperately want to return to the Champions League, and I don’t think they’re going to play simply for the draw. Conversely, Chelsea players are ready for the season to be over, and with just a few days left to go, it’s doubtful they’re going to be heavily motivated – rivalry or not. 

At a price north of +200, I love combining a Manchester United win with a clean sheet, and parlaying the Man United moneyline with both teams not to score is the best way to do that. 

My best bet: Man United win/Both teams to score No SGP (+215 at DraftKings)

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Manchester United vs Chelsea side analysis

While Manchester United have lost two of their last five matches, they’ve been nearly perfect at Old Trafford. The Red Devils have lost just twice all season at home, both coming in the opening weeks of the campaign, and have won 26 of the 32 home matches in all competitions. With Rashford returning to the lineup, they’ll be missing only one first-choice player with Lisandro Martinez remaining out. 

Lampard did confirm on Wednesday morning that Felix will be back in the squad for Thursday’s match, although to what extent remains to be seen. However, he’s the only player they will see returning to the squad, as nine players will miss out through injury. Chelsea held Man City to just one goal over the weekend, but it was against a heavily-rotated side after City claimed the title without playing on Saturday. 

Man United are heavily favored on the 3-way line for all of these reasons, but the price is too juicy for my taste. I’d combine it with something else, as we did in our best bet, or I’d wait to get it live in the hopes that Man United take a while to find their first goal. If past matches are any indication, the draw could also be worth a look, as each of the last five meetings have been all square at both half-time and full-time.

Manchester United vs Chelsea Over/Under analysis

We touched on Man United’s low-scoring ways earlier, and that was for good reason. EPL odds have the Over 2.5 goals in this fixture north of -160, with the price being as high as -195 at DraftKings. That presents tremendous value on the Under, which is +135 or so at multiple books.

Those last five meetings we just discussed have seen a total of six combined goals, with the last three fixtures all ending in 1-1 stalemates. And while Chelsea have been conceding goals of late, seven of their last 10 matches away from Stamford Bridge have featured less than three goals. 

Manchester United has seen just two of their last nine fixtures reach the three-goal mark, and only five of their last seven at home have cleared that number. In addition, they’ve kept a clean sheet in those five Unders.

This isn’t typically a high-scoring rivalry, and given United’s defensive prowess at home and Chelsea’s struggles on the road, I’m not buying into it being one here. I love the Under and will be dabbling on it in addition to my best bet.

Manchester United vs Chelsea game info

Manchester United vs Chelsea key injuries

Manchester United: Marcus Rashford F (Probable), Lisandro Martinez D (Out), Donny van de Beek M (Out), Marcel Sabitzer M (Out).
Chelsea: Joao Felix F (Probable), Reece James D (Out), Ben Chilwell D (Out), Mason Mount M (Out).

Manchester United vs Chelsea recent form

Manchester United vs Chelsea weather

You’d be hard-pressed to ask for better weather than what the players and fans will experience on Thursday evening. Temperatures will be in the mid 60s with a minimal breeze, and there is absolutely no rain expected before, during, or after the match.