Newcastle vs Arsenal Odds & Picks

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02 November 2023

It's arguably the fixture of the weekend in the EPL as Newcastle and Arsenal meet at St. James' Park on Saturday. Newcastle is fresh off an EFL win, while Arsenal went crashing out of the competition. Our betting picks are backing goals galore in this one.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

This Saturday’s final Premier League game is undoubtedly its best, with Newcastle vs Arsenal. Both sides entered the weekend in the top six of the Premier League with the visiting Arsenal team second and Newcastle down in sixth.

Neither club has lost any of their previous five Premier League games, and the EPL odds indicate this game could go either way.

I break down Newcastle vs. Arsenal in our EPL predictions for matchweek 11 on November 4.

Newcastle vs Arsenal best odds

EPL predictions for Newcastle vs Arsenal

There’s a host of exciting Premier League games this weekend but none more anticipated than Newcastle vs Arsenal on Saturday. These are two clubs in great form, with Arsenal second in the Premier League table and chasing their North London rivals who sit ahead of them, and a Newcastle team on a good run in the league and fresh from destroying Man Utd with their second string in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday.

These are two clubs that really feel like they’re both moving in the right direction. Last season we saw Arsenal finish second in the Premier League and under Mikel Arteta, there has been a continual process and now they’re well in the mix to challenge for the title once again. The home side are also moving in the right direction. Last season Newcastle qualified for the Champions League for the first time in a generation and now the club is looking to win their first silverware since the Saudi Arabian takeover. Under Eddie Howe’s management, this feels like a team who are in the fast lane to success.

These are two of the highest-scoring clubs in the Premier League. Newcastle’s 26 goals is tied for the most of any club in the Premier League and Arsenal are second in the goalscoring charts with 23 in just 10 games. That brings us nicely to our best bet for this game which is for Newcastle vs Arsenal to have Over 2.5 goals.

The Total Goals market is a pick’em at this point with Over 2.5 goals my choice at -111. A look at the Premier League table can tell you a lot about the reasons that I’m doing this. As mentioned above through 10 games the two teams have scored 26 and 23 goals respectively, both amongst the highest in the Premier League. They’ve also conceded 19 goals between them in a combined 20 games, which shows they’re still capable of conceding nearly a goal per game. That combination of good attacks and defenses that aren’t impenetrable should mean goals here.

I’m expecting both teams to score on the day, also available at -139, and we should see the total hit too. We’ve seen Over 2.5 goals land in seven of Arsenal’s 10 Premier League games this season, with Newcastle also seeing the same number of high-scoring games.

Both teams have strikers who are in form with Newcastle’s Callum Wilson now on seven Premier League goals and Arsenal’s Eddie Nketiah fresh from scoring a hat trick in the league just last weekend. With those players in top form and both teams having Over 2.5 goals in 70% of their Premier League games so far, I am confident to back the Over here.

My best bet: Over 2.5 goals (-111 at TonyBet)

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Newcastle vs Arsenal same-game parlay

Over 2 goals

Callum Wilson anytime goal

Newcastle Over 1 card

You want a Same-Game Parlay for Newcastle vs Arsenal? Don’t worry, I’ve got you covered with this +400 wager.

We always start our Same-Game Parlays with our best bet for the game, which in this case is for Over 2.5 goals. As mentioned above we’ve seen a combined 20 Premier League games for both clubs so far and Over 2.5 goals has landed in 14 of these and with the talent on display I believe that it should again.

Secondly, we’ll be backing Newcastle’s Callum Wilson to score here. He comes into this game well rested having been benched for the Carabao Cup win over Man Utd, meaning he’ll be very fresh for this one. He’s in incredible form too, not only did he score two in Newcastle’s draw with Wolves last weekend, but he has scored six goals in his last six Premier League games and he will be a real danger for the Arsenal backline.

Finally, we’ll be backing Newcastle to have Over 1 card. If you look at Newcastle’s disciplinary record this season it’s easy to see why that’s the wager. They have 27 cards in 10 games, an average of 2.7 cards per game with 14 players having already been booked in the Premier League as well as the likes of Anthony Gordon and Bruno Guimaraes persistently in the ref’s with 5 and 4 cards respectively. In a tough game against a team like Arsenal, I’d expect to see plenty of cards for Newcastle.

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Newcastle vs Arsenal side and Over/Under analysis

One thing you may have noticed so far is that I’ve not expressed a view on who’ll win this game between Newcastle and Arsenal and in truth that’s because I really don’t know. I’d lean toward Arsenal who at +155 could offer value but the fact that Newcastle were able to rest some key players in the midweek win over Man Utd makes me think they might be able to take advantage of that home crowd and get something from the draw. That makes the +230 on offer for the draw look like an attractive option and certainly more enticing than a home win at +180.

We’ve covered the Total Goals market above, which is a pick’em, and I’d take the Over at -111, I also think that we’ll see Both Teams to Score coming in, but at -139 I think it makes more sense to back the Over instead.

Newcastle vs Arsenal game info

Newcastle vs Arsenal key injuries

Newcastle: Harvey Barnes FWR (Out), Alexander Isak STR (Out), Sven Botman CB (Out), Sandro Tonali CM (Out)
Arsenal: Jurrien Timber DEF (Out), Gabriel Jesus FWR (Out), Thomas Partey CM (Out), Emile Smith Rowe FWR (Out)