Manchester United vs Wolves Prediction

Covers

11 August 2023

Our free betting picks expect Man U to have an easy day at Old Trafford against a Wolves side that is in disarray following a number of key (and recent) departures — including their manager just days ago.

Manchester United and Wolverhampton Wanderers will kick off their 2023-24 Premier League campaigns when they meet at Old Trafford on Monday.

Bruno Fernandes is the newly-appointed captain of the Red Devils and will lead his team into a new season that sees them hoping to once again mount a title challenge. For Wolves, it’s another year where they’re likely to be involved in a relegation scrap and they come into the match with major questions, loads of uncertainty surrounding the club, and massive underdogs based on the Premier League odds.

How will this factor into the betting markets for the match? Find out in our Manchester United vs. Wolves free picks and predictions for Monday, August 14.

Manchester United vs Wolves best odds

Manchester United vs Wolves picks and predictions

A Manchester United clean sheet is paying between around -105 to -110 pretty much across the board, whether as a straight prop bet or by taking the Wolves Under 0.5 goals — and it’s our best bet for a variety of reasons.

Let’s start with the hosts: Man United allowed the third-fewest goals in the Premier League a season ago, and have now upgraded between the posts with Andre Onana taking over from David de Gea. The Spaniard committed multiple errors that led to goals a season ago, and Onana will be expected to help solidify the defense and enable Man U to play out of the back.

But what about Wolves? Well, there’s a lot to unpack there.

First, they’ve seen a mass exodus of talent over the last two months, including former captain Ruben Neves; the heart of their midfield departed to Saudi Arabia, while his double pivot partner Joao Moutinho also departed. Pacey winger Adama Traore and striker Raul Jimenez are also gone, with no real replacements brought in. In fact, only two new players of note have been brought in this summer — one of whom, Matt Doherty, arrived on a free transfer.

That lack of spending led to a managerial change just a few days ago. Julen Lopetegui departed, having not received financial backing in the market, meaning new manager Gary O’Neil has had just a few practices with his new side.

Now realize that they endured all of those changes as a club after a season where they were atrocious away from home: They earned just 11 points from their 19 away fixtures last season and failed to win any of their last eight on the road. Wolves also managed to score just 12 goals away from home, as they failed to reach 40 goals on the season for the third straight campaign.

Neves was their co-leading scorer with six goals, despite playing as the deep-lying midfielder. Mathaus Cunha is expected to lead their front line on Monday, having scored just two goals for the club in his 18 appearances a season ago. The other co-leading scorer from a season ago, Daniel Podence, will flank him but failed to register a shot on goal against Man United last year.

When you combine all of these factors, it’s highly unlikely that the visitors will find the back of the net on Monday. Bank on Man U to keep another clean sheet against Wolves for the fifth time in their last six meetings, and the eighth time in 10 showdowns.

My best bet: Wolves Under 0.5 goals (-106 at FanDuel)

Manchester United vs Wolves same-game parlay

Wolves Under 0.5 goals (-106)

Fernandes 1+ shot on goal (-280)

Antony 3+ shots (-410)

Man United Over 5.5 corners (-200)

We’re building off the clean sheet and taking advantage of what should be plenty of one-way traffic towards the Wolves goal for our same-game parlay for Monday.

Last season, Fernandes averaged 0.9 shots on target per match and was the primary penalty taker. In the May win at Old Trafford, he put two of seven efforts on goal, and had another in three shots during the win at Molineaux. Regardless of how Man United set up, he will be playing in the middle of the park as he did in those two fixtures. Given the issues in play at striker, he’s going to be involved in the attack and should put at least one effort on goal.

Speaking of shots, nobody took more against Wolves last season for Man United than Antony. Of their 43 shots over the two matches, Antony accounted for 11 of them; he is a volume shooter who loves to cut inside from the right, curling efforts with his stronger left foot. He averaged 2.9 shots per match a season ago, and he’s going to be firing away on Monday — three shots (which don't need to be on target) is an easy floor.

Finally, Wolves are going to look to limit the damage and bunker in as they have in seasons past. Each of the two meetings last year featured at least seven corners for Manchester United, including 11 in the meeting at Old Trafford. We’ll go with the Red Devils to take at least six of them in this one.

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Manchester United vs Wolves spread and Over/Under analysis

Manchester United opened as 3-way money line favorites in the -270 range, and the public quickly bet them down to -315 or higher. Wolves have seen their price skyrocket as high as +1,000 before settling around +900. The draw can be had at +500.

The Red Devils have real questions at striker: Anthony Martial is once again injured, and new signing Rasmus Hojlund will miss a few weeks with a back injury. Marcus Rashford could start up front, or Jadon Sancho may resume his preseason role as a false-9.

The draw is a possibility because of those questions, and were this last year’s Wolves team I’d suggest putting a bit on it... but with Wolves in turmoil — and a manager taking over on short notice — there’s no value in a play here.

As for the total... it’s a similar story. Were this a mid-season clash with Wolves having their usual talent, I’d be all over the Under at +134. After all, the last four meetings have featured two or fewer goals, with just five scored in total, and the last six fixtures at Old Trafford have all gone Under.

But I could easily see Man United taking a 3-0 win in this one given what Wolves are replacing. There’s some value in this Under, but considering we’re on Wolves not to score, we’ll stay away and stick with that wager.