Maple Leafs vs. Canucks Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will Toronto Overpower Vancouver?

The Toronto Maple Leafs continue their Western road trip against the Vancouver Canucks Saturday . Here's sports betting analyst Scott Cullen's top NHL pick based on the best NHL odds.

Winning four of their past five games,  the Leafs are in fourth place overall with 84 points in 62 games. They appear destined for a first-round playoff matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Canucks are 19 points behind the Winnipeg Jets for the Western Conference's second Wild Card spot, so it's only a matter of time before they're officially eliminated from playoff contention. The Canucks managed one regulation win in their past nine games.

Here is our best Maple Leafs vs. Canucks NHL pick (odds via DraftKIngs Sportsbook; pickconfidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Maple Leafs vs. Canucks pick

Maple Leafs 60-Minute ML (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Maple Leafs are one of the NHL's top teams and improved their roster depth before the trade deadline.

Toronto ranks fourth when it comes to score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals percentage, controlling 54.7% of expected goals during five-on-five play.  The Leafs have a 15-10-4 record on the road, with 14 of those wins coming in regulation.

That kind of puck control poses a problem for a Canucks team that had a suspect defense before the trade deadline and has gotten worse since. Their big deadline acquisition, Filip Hronek, is out with an upper-body injury. He'll join Ethan Bear and Oliver Ekman-Larsson in the press box.

Mix in a trade of d-man Luke Schenn to Toronto, and the Canucks are left with two active defensemen - Quinn Hughes and Tyler Myers - that averaged more than 17 minutes of ice time per game this season.

That patchwork defense should have a hard time stopping Toronto's top forwards and is the main reason I expect the Maple Leafs to win in 60 minutes.

Maple Leafs vs. Canucks best odds

DraftKings (-125) 

There's enough variance among our best sportsbooks when it comes to taking the Leafs on the moneyline that it pays to shop around for the best price.

DraftKings has the best number, at -125, clearly better than the rest, which range from -136 to -145. That provides a 3.6% difference in implied probability between DK and Caesars, more than enough incentive to make this bet at DK.

Maple Leafs vs. Canucks odds

Maple Leafs vs. Canucks odds analysis

FanDuel opened with the Leafs favored at -220, compared to the Canucks at +176. 

Despite 70% of the consensus moneyline wagers coming in on Toronto, pushing it as high -230, the line since moved towards Vancouver. Toronto is now -210 with Vancouver at +172. 

The total opened at 6.5, with opening odds at -118 for the Over and -104 for the Under. With 73% of total wagers on the Over there's been movement. The Over is now -134 with the Under at +110. At this rate, it won't take much more for the total to shift to 7.

Maple Leafs vs. Canucks game info

• Date: Saturday, Mar. 4, 7 p.m. ET
• TV: NHL Network, Sportsnet
• Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC

Maple Leafs-Canucks pick made 3/4/2023 at 10:14 a.m. ET.

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