Maple Leafs vs. Lightning prop bets: Pick Stamkos to score

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning clash on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Alex Killorn is producing on a fairly consistent basis, making him a nice choice to get on the board. Auston Matthews is ripping pucks on goal at an outstanding rate, and we’re expecting that to continue. Thirdly, we’re banking on a goal from Steven Stamkos.

NHL odds as of 10:58 a.m. on 04/11/2023.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning prop bets

Best Bet: Killorn to score 1+ point (-127)

Killorn checks off several boxes we like to see when wagering on someone to score a point at this price.

The first is his recent production. The Tampa Bay winger has been scoring at a point-per-game pace, notching seven points in his last seven contests. His run of strong offensive numbers stretches back even further, as he has 18 points in his last 20 games.

Secondly, he’s seeing opportunities that are conducive to scoring more points. The Lightning forward plays on the team’s second line alongside Stamkos and Nick Paul while also skating on the top power-play unit.

The matchup should also be favourable as he’ll likely either face a goalie playing his second game in as many nights or an OHL netminder. Ilya Samsonov and ATO goalie Nick Chenard are the only puck-stoppers on the roster.

Key stat: Killorn has a point in five of his last seven games.

Quick picks

Matthews over 4.5 shots (+120): Matthews has landed on four shots exactly in each of his last two games, but he’s worth betting on at these odds. The Maple Leafs’ superstar has topped this number in six of his last nine outings, totalling 54 shots during this heater.

Tampa Bay isn’t the worst matchup for opposing shooters, either, allowing the 12th-most shots per game (31.6) this season.

He has gone over this number in both outings against the Bolts this year, totalling 14 shots.

Stamkos to score 1+ goal (+132): Like Killorn, Stamkos could also benefit from whoever’s between the pipes for Toronto. The lethal scorer is a nightmare for even the best netminders with 34 goals this season and one in four of his last six outings.

He’s one of Tampa Bay’s more dangerous offensive options lately, ranking second in scoring chances (15) and high-danger chances (nine) over the last two weeks per Natural Stat Trick.

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