Maple Leafs vs. Panthers picks and odds: Bet on Florida to win
The Toronto Maple Leafs stay on the road for a date with the Florida Panthers.
The pregame narrative: Florida is a desperate bunch that’s playing well, making the squad our pick to win. If you’re expecting a goalie duel, you won’t find it here, which is great news for the over. Even though we’re picking the Cats to win, their shot total seems a little high and we’re taking the under.
NHL odds as of 9:58 a.m. on 03/23/2023.
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers picks
Best Bet: Panthers moneyline (-122)
Florida is desperate for points and playing some excellent hockey.
Despite a loss in the Panthers’ most recent outing against the Philadelphia Flyers, they’ve won six of their last eight. The underlying numbers suggest they’re dominating play, as they rank third in expected goals percentage over the last seven days (60.64%), according to Natural Stat Trick.
The Cats started backup Alex Lyon in their loss to Philadelphia, so it’ll likely be Sergei Bobrovsky tending twine on Thursday. The veteran netminder is putting forward some solid results, owning a 7-1-1 record and a .910 save percentage across his last nine appearances.
Toronto, meanwhile, isn’t looking all that impressive. The Maple Leafs have lost three of their last five outings and have the fifth-worst expected goals percentage across the last week (40.48%).
Expect the Panthers — who are fighting for a playoff spot — to be the better team on Thursday.
Key stat: Florida has the seventh-best home record in the NHL (21-10-4).
Quick picks
Over 7 goals (-109): The Panthers are an offensively-minded team, placing fifth in goals per game (3.49) and first in shots per contest (37.0). They haven’t been the most defensively responsible squad, however, allowing the 10th-most goals per game (3.38) while tying for the 12th-most shots against per outing (31.6).
Their style of hockey is conducive to overs, as they’ve gone over or pushed on this total in five of their last six.
The Maple Leafs have also played in plenty of high-scoring games recently, pushing or surpassing this mark in six of their last seven.
Panthers under 37.5 shots on goal (-112): Florida leads the league in shots per game, but this seems like a pretty high bar to clear. Even though Toronto is struggling defensively, the Maple Leafs are still holding their opponents to a lower total than this (37.3) over their last three contests.
Their season-long track record this season also gives us confidence, as they’re surrendering the sixth-fewest shots per game (29.3) this year.
