Mariners vs. Guardians odds, pick and best player props for 2023 home opener

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The Cleveland Guardians (5-2) did a lot of things right last season while going 92-70 and winning the American League Central Division title. One of those things wasn’t beating the Seattle Mariners (2-5).

What a difference a year makes. Cleveland opened the season by taking three of four games at Seattle. During the 2022 campaign, the Guardians were 1-6 straight up when facing the Mariners. They’d lost seven of eight to the Mariners coming into the start of this season.

Coming back to Cleveland to face the Mariners in their home opener on Friday, the Guardians are riding a three-game wining streak over Seattle. It’s their best stretch against Seattle since a five-game run in 2019.

At Progressive Field however, Cleveland has dropped four in a row to the Mariners. Regardless, it’s the Guardians that oddsmakers are liking as slight -115 favorites in this game with a 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch.

The Guardians are 4-3 against the run line this season, while Seattle is 3-4. As a betting favorite, Cleveland has covered the run line once in three games. Straight up, the Guardians are 2-1 as the chalk and 3-1 as the underdog. Cleveland is 5-1 SU over the past six games. However, Seattle is 5-2 SU in the past seven games between the two teams played at Progressive Field.

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In the MLB public betting splits, the people are divided on how they view the outcome of this game. In the run line splits, 53% of handle is on Seattle, while 66% of bets are backing Cleveland. Moneyline splits are leaning solidly toward the Guardians. Cleveland is garnering 64% of handle and 68% of bets.

When it comes to the total of 7.5 runs, the action is also uncertain. The handle is going 57% for the under, while the bets are falling 62% with the over. In the case of both the Mariners and the Guardians, the over has been the winning play in four of their last six games. The under is 7-3-1 over the past 11 Cleveland vs. Seattle games.

Cleveland right-hander Aaron Civale and Seattle right-hander Logan Gilbert will toe the rubber for the second time this season and they will also be facing each other for the second time this season. Civale was the winner, while Gilbert took the loss in Cleveland’s 2-0 victory on April 1.

The Guardians righty worked seven innings of two-hit ball, striking out three while walking one. However, Cleveland is just 1-3 SU in Civale’s last four starts against Seattle. He was 4-3 with a 3.80 ERA in nine home starts last season. Civale is 2-2 with a 2.89 ERA in four career starts against the Mariners.

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Gilbert worked six innings, allowing four hits and one earned run. The telling blow was a fourth-inning solo homer by Josh Naylor. Seattle is 2-2 SU the last four times Gilbert has faced the Guardians. Last season, Gilbert was tough to beat on the road. He went 8-1, an .889 winning percentage, with a 3.16 ERA in 18 starts.

In four career starts against Cleveland, Gilbert is 1-2 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He’s 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in his only previous start at Progressive Field.

Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan is batting .400 (two-for-five) against Gilbert with an RBI. Take him for over 0.5 hits at a betting line of -285.

On the Seattle side of the batting order, Mariners outfielder AJ Pollock has stepped into the batter’s box twice to face Civale. He’s hit safely both times for a 1.000 batting average. The odds on over 0.5 hits for Pollock is -175 and considering he’s never made an out against this pitcher, it sure seems like a safe bet.

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Seattle outfielder Jarred Kelenic is offering odds of -110 to go over 0.5 hits. He’s two-for-six (.333) off of Civale, with a home run and two RBI.

Civale’s strikeout total is set at 5.5. He fanned three Mariners in his first start of the season, The right-hander has gone over five strikeouts just twice through his last seven starts. Take the under on his strikeout prop at odds of -145.

Cleveland has lost its last two home openers. Taking into consideration Gilbert’s sensational road record from last season, plus Seattle’s recent run of success in away games against the Guardians, the Mariners look to be poised to make it three in a row.

Pick: Seattle Mariners -105.

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