Mets-Marlins prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, September 18

The New York Mets (69-80) take on the Miami Marlins (78-72) in the first game of a three-game series on Monday, September 18. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from LoanDepot Park. Rookie Jose Butto (1-2, 3.46 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets, and righty Edward Cabrera (6-7, 4.52 ERA) will pitch for the Marlins. Miami’s improbable sweep of the Braves over the weekend has drawn them dead-even with the Cubs for the third and final Wild Card spot, though Chicago still holds the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Marlins are -155 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with New York coming in at +130. The run total is set at 8.5.

Mets-Marlins picks: Monday, September 18

Injury report

Mets

Day-to-day: 3B Brett Baty (groin)
Out: RP Sean Reid-Foley (lat), OF Starling Marte (groin), SS Luis Guillorme (calf), RHP Carlos Carrasco (finger)

Marlins

Day-to-day:OF Bryan De La Cruz (right ankle discomfort)
Out: SP Sandy Alcantara (right UCL sprain), OF Avisail Garcia (left hamstring strain), RP Huascar Brazoban (left hamstring strain, left hip impingement)

Starting pitchers

Jose Butto vs. Edward Cabrera

Butto has looked solid in his recent starts. In his latest outing, he pitched five innings against the Diamondbacks, allowing one earned run and recording seven strikeouts. In his latest road start, he allowed two earned runs in 6.1 innings against the Nationals.

Cabrera has not started since July, but he has pitched four innings or more in two appearances in September. In his latest outing, he let up two runs in 4.2 innings against the Brewers and recorded five strikeouts. In his latest home outing, he kept the Dodgers runless over four innings while striking out eight.

Over/Under pick

The Marlins busted out the bats in a big way over the weekend, and while these pitchers are both fairly reliable, I like the over here. The Marlins averaged 12 runs per game in their last three games, and the Mets have the ninth-worst bullpen ERA in MLB.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

The Mets dropped two of three against the Reds in their latest series, while the Marlins swept the Braves in a high-scoring performance. I have to go with Miami after their last week. They put up 36 runs in three games against Atlanta, and that kind of momentum is hard to slow down. They also have home-field advantage here, and when Cabrera is on, his stuff is as good as anyone’s.