Marlins vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks, Odds

The Dodgers are rolling out a bullpen game Saturday, but with Ryan Yarbrough commanding his share of the workload, our MLB picks don't think the Marlins will have it easy

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The Marlins finally put an end to the Dodgers’ menacing winning streak at 11, but with a struggling rookie on the hill Saturday, things could quickly turn back in the other direction for the MLB odds underdogs. L.A. has lost just twice in the month of August and will counter with its elite bullpen.

Let’s break down Marlins vs. Dodgers in our MLB picks and predictions for Saturday, August 19.

Marlins vs Dodgers odds

Marlins vs Dodgers predictions

The Dodgers will likely be deploying a combination of reliever Caleb Ferguson and newly-acquired lefty Ryan Yarbrough in this game after using three back-end relievers rather heavily on Friday night. While the likes of Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol have had at least a day of rest, Ferguson’s use at the front end coupled with the need for the back-end on Friday should put L.A. in a compromising position on Saturday.

With that, this game should be squarely on Yarbrough’s shoulders. The lefty has once again proven to be elite in limiting hard-hit balls this season, ranking among the best pitchers in the game, but with a rather extreme 29.4% fly ball rate, his expected batting average is a poor .269.

The Marlins, judging by the splits, would seem to be in a good spot here. After all, they’re seventh in wRC+ to lefties. With that said, this team has the lowest fly ball rate in the league which should throw them for a loop and favor a fly ball pitcher like Yarbrough here.

We will touch on Eury Perez more in a bit, but with the way he’s struggled, I find it hard to believe he can contain one of the two best offenses in baseball. Give me the home side.

My best bet: Dodgers moneyline (-166 at DraftKings)

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Marlins vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Perez is going through it right now. He’s allowed eight earned runs in the month of August, making two starts and yielding four walks and three home runs. He’s coming off a month of July that saw him allow seven runs in 6 1/3 innings. The righty has a ton of talent but he’s been getting rocked lately.

While his season-long expected stats look good, Perez has pitched to a .255 xBA or worse over the last two months. His hard-hit rate remains high, perhaps a result of generating more swings and misses. It’s also worth noting that his ground ball has taken a huge dive in August.

With this much volatility, it’s clear that we can’t trust the highly-touted prospect quite yet. The Dodgers are 11th in wRC+ over the last two days but are hitting .273 with solid strikeout and walk numbers. The chances they get some runs on the board here are high, and while I do think they win this game, the state of the Dodgers bullpen has me fearful for the Under here. With that, I’ll lean towards the Over if you’re looking for a play on the total.

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Trend to know

The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Over in 59 of their last 101 games (+18.15 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Dodgers

Marlins vs Dodgers game info

Starting pitchers

Eury Perez (5-4, 3.19 ERA): The rookie has had some success in his first season, pitching to a 3.19 ERA in 13 innings. His numbers have taken a leap in the wrong direction in the last two months, and while the Braves are a difficult team to pitch against, he shouldn’t be allowing four earned to each the Reds and Yankees.

Caleb Ferguson (7-3, 2.39 ERA): The left-hander will be making his second appearance of the season as a starter and the ninth of his career. After a rocky start to the season, Ferguson has been fantastic out of the bullpen with just two earned runs in the last two months.