Marlins vs Phillies odds, predictions, picks: Back Philadelphia at home
The NL Wild Card round is here, and one of the most anticipated matchups is the Marlins vs Phillies in an NL East divisional rivalry renewed. One of the best MLB betting sites in Caesars Sportsbook has the Phillies favorited by 1.5 runs at competitive odds of +143.
I believe the Phillies will be able to handle business in this game at home. Not only that, but winning by two or more runs is a feasible goal for a team that ranked seventh in runs per game this season at home and eighth overall.
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(Tuesday, 8:08 p.m. EST, ESPN)
With these two teams having competed against one another frequently this season, history is instructive when looking on how to bet this game. In the 13 games these teams played this year, Miami came out on top more with seven wins.
Despite that, it’s worth noting Philadelphia outscored them by nine combined runs in those games. Whereas the Phillies were was one of the better offenses in MLB this year, Miami was all the way back in 26th in runs per game.
The Marlins are an interesting case-study in these playoffs due to their -56 run differential, which was the tenth worst in the majors. Philadelphia on the other hand went +81 in run differential. Miami’s totals were worse on the road than at home.
33 year old Zach Wheeler is taking the mound for the Phillies while Jesus Luzardo gets the nod from the Marlins.
Wheeler’s still a very good pitcher for Philadelphia, with a 13-6 record as a starter and 212 strikeouts this season (Second most of his career). Wheeler pitched six innings twice vs Miami this year for a 1-1 record. His ERA on the year was higher than it’s been in his entire Phillies tenure, but he’s still a good pitchers who finished ninth in strikeouts.
The 26 year old Luzardo also had a fine season, finishing 17th in strikeouts (88 more than his 2022 totals) while boasting a 3.63 ERA. That said, his record was a bit shakier at 10-9.
After being a major area of weakness for many years, Philadelphia’s bullpen ranked top ten in ERA, saves, and WHIP. Miami’s bullpen ranked near the bottom in these areas.
Phillies to cover -1.5 run line at +143 odds vs Marlins from Caesars Sportsbook
With Philadelphia being at home, I have a lot of confidence in them being able to cover the run line in the first game. The starting pitching matchup of Wheeler vs Luzardo will be the biggest decider in this from my viewpoint.
It’ll be interesting to see how Luzardo plays, as he only pitched once against the Phillies this year in a win where he gave up just an 1.93 ERA and had five strikeouts.
But the batting power of Philadelphia is the biggest cause for concern if you’re a Marlins supporter. Although they took some time to get going this season, the likes of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Trae Turner all had great second half of the year.
Miami has some promising players to build their future around on offense like Bryan De La Cruz and Luis Arraez, but the Phillies’ depth in the batting order is too deep to overcome in my opinion.
Finally, playoff experience could come through and shine in this series. Philadelphia made it to the World Series with this same roster last year while Miami is playing in their first porseason since 2020.
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