Mavericks vs Grizzlies Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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11 December 2023

Mavericks vs Grizzlies Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

With the Mavericks shorthanded following Kyrie Irving's injury, it will be the Luka Doncic show in Memphis against the Grizzlies. It's now a matter of whether he's still firing on all cylinders or if the burden of carrying the Mavs finally wears him down.

On a run beating up on the lesser teams in the West, the Dallas Mavericks aim for their third straight win as they visit the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

Memphis has just a single home win in 10 games this season, part of the reason why it's a 2.5-point underdog in the NBA odds.

The Grizzlies do have a win this season against the Mavs, and Dallas will be without Kyrie Irving, who is down after suffering a scary foot injury last game against Portland.

How will that hamper its potent offense? Read below for my free NBA picks for the Mavericks vs. Grizzlies on Monday, December 11.

Mavericks vs Grizzlies odds

Mavericks vs Grizzlies predictions

Not having Kyrie Irving is far from ideal, as he was averaging 23 points on 47.2% shooting from the field, along with 5.2 assists and 3.9 rebounds.

Fortunately, the Dallas Mavericks also have the league’s second-leading scorer in Luka Doncic, who enters averaging 31.9 points per game on 48.8% shooting, adding 8.4 rebounds and 8.7 assists.

The 24-year-old has been on fire lately, topping the 30-point plateau in six straight games. Last time out, he went for 32 points, 10 assists, and six rebounds in a 125-112 win over the Trail Blazers. That was two days after he went for a 40-point triple-double in a 147-97 annihilation of the Utah Jazz.

Doncic wasn’t in the lineup when the Mavericks lost 108-94 to the Grizzlies on Dec 1, just one of two games this year Dallas was held under 100 points.

However, in his lone appearance against the Grizzlies this year, Doncic was destructive in Memphis, scoring 35 points, with 12 rebounds and 12 assists in a 125-110 win on October 30. In the last five games against Memphis before this season, Doncic has averaged 31.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and 9.6 assists.

Aside from Kyrie, the Mavericks will also be without forwards Maxi Kleber (toe) and Grant Williams (knee).

But I don’t think the roster around him matters: Doncic is an offensive system to himself, and he should rise to the occasion when his team needs him most, against a team that has struggled to contain him.

My best bet: Luka Doncic Over 54.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120 at DraftKings)

Mavericks vs Grizzlies same-game parlay

Luka Doncic Over 54.5 pts+reb+ast

Luka Doncic Over 3.5 made threes

Luka Doncic Over 0.5 blocks

Let’s stick with Luka and start with his work from downtown.

He’s connected on four triples in two of his last three games, but he’s been right around the 3.5 total set for Monday. In his last 12, Doncic has connected at least three times from distance in 10 games, and with four or more six times.

Doncic went 6-for-12 from beyond the arc the last time these two teams met — tied for the second-most hits he’s drilled in a game this season. Memphis’ 3-point shooting defense gives me confidence that Luka will get a look whenever he wants. Coming into Monday, the Grizzlies are letting teams shoot a blistering 39.5% — one of only two teams that are surrendering at the 39% plateau.

We'll wrap with an unusual bet. When you think of Doncic, you don’t think of a shot blocker, but he has three blocks in his last three, and he’s recorded at least one block against the Grizzlies in his last three head-to-heads. One block is all you need to win this leg of the parlay. On the year, Memphis is the most blocked team in the league, getting swatted just a tick under seven times per game.

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Mavericks vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread has been affected by the Irving injury as Dallas was as long as a 3.5-point favorite. Now? All books have shaved that line by at least a point with Memphis as short as a 2-point dog.

For the year, the Mavericks are 11-10-0 against the spread, but 10-6-0 ATS as the favorite. Memphis is 9-12-0 ATS on the year, and 5-8-0 ATS as the underdog.

The total at DraftKings is 227 but many other books have it as high as 228.5.

Dallas has been a bettors’ go-to when betting Overs, with a record of 15-6-0. The Mavericks are the fifth-highest-scoring team in basketball, putting up 119.9 points per game.

The Over is just 8-13-0 in Memphis’ games this year. The Grizz are on the other side of the scoring spectrum, putting up 106.2 points per game, which ranks second-worst in basketball.

Mavericks vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

The Mavericks have covered the spread in each of their last five road games against the Grizzlies. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Grizzlies.

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