Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Preview, and Odds

It’s a matchup of Western Conference foes on the hardwood as a pair of teams take the floor in the Lone Star State. The Oklahoma City Thunder are on the road as they travel to take on the Dallas Mavericks Saturday night. Oklahoma City was at home against the Lakers Thursday night, rolling to a 133-110 win to easily cover the 4.5-point line. Dallas was at home against Memphis Friday night in the front half of a back-to-back set that closes here. The Mavericks downed the Rockets 121-115 at home Tuesday night in their previous contest, covering the line as a 4.5-point favorite. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Thunder owns an 87-83 advantage and took two of three meetings last season. That includes a 120-109 home win in the most recent matchup on January 8, 2023.

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Oklahoma City Thunder Look to Earn Road Victory

Oklahoma City snapped a two-game slide as they pulverized the Lakers at home Thursday night in their previous contest. The Thunder entered Friday night 12-6 and stood third in the Northwest Division, two games behind the Timberwolves for the top spot. Against Los Angeles, Oklahoma City trailed by as many as 14 in the opening quarter and by seven after one before getting things going. The Thunder outscored Los Angeles 42-23 in the second quarter to take a 12-point edge at the half. They never let the lead drop below 10 in the second half en route to the triumph. Oklahoma City shot 53.2% from the field, including 14 of 42 from three-point range, and won the rebounding battle 48-41 in the game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 33 points and seven assists in the win.

This season, the Thunder are 6 in the league in scoring offense as they average 119.4 points per game on the year. Oklahoma City is 26 in rebounding with 41.3 boards per contest while they are 17 in assists with 25.7 dimes a night. The Thunder are 9 in the league in scoring defense as they allow an average of 110.9 points a night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the team with 30.6 points, 5.9 rebounds and 6.1 assists per contest. Luguentz Dort is the most reliable secondary scoring option with 10.3 points per game. The Thunder look to Josh Giddey (12.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists), Chet Holmgren (17.9 points, 7.8 rebounds), Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe (10.9 points) as other secondary scoring options. Aleksej Pokusevski, Jalen Williams (17.3 points), Ousmane Dieng, Kenrich Williams, Davis Bertans and Aaron Wiggins have to be contributors if they hope to have success. Oklahoma City is 2 in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 49.5% from the floor as a team on the year. The Thunder are 12 by hitting 12.9 threes per game and 1 in three-point shooting by hitting 39.8% of their attempts from beyond the arc.

Dallas Mavericks Playing Second Game of Back-to-Back

Dallas was in action at home against Memphis Friday night so they close out a back-to-back set here. The Mavericks entered Friday night 11-6 on the year and stood atop the Southwest Division by two games over New Orleans in the standings. Dallas is 2-1 in the second game of back-to-back situations this season with a +4-ppg scoring margin (120 ppg for, 116 ppg against) in those contests. The Mavericks entered Friday 5-2 at home with a +2.4-ppg scoring differential (122.4 ppg for, 120 ppg against) on the year. Dallas was 6-4 with a -0.6-ppg scoring margin (118.1 ppg for, 118.7 ppg against) in games against Western Conference foes entering Friday.

This season, the Mavericks are 5 in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 119.5 points per game. Dallas is 23 in the league in rebounding as they collect 42.2 boards a night while they are 23 in assists by dishing out 24.9 dimes per contest. The Mavericks are 23 in the league in scoring defense as they are giving up an average of 118.1 points a game. Luka Doncic leads the team with 31.1 points, eight rebounds and 7.9 assists per game on the season. Kyrie Irving (24.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.5 assists), Tim Hardaway Jr. (16.8 points) and Grant Williams (15 points, five rebounds) are solid secondary options on the offensive end. Derrick Jones Jr., Josh Green, Dereck Lively II, Jaden Hardy, Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber, Seth Curry and Dante Exum are rotation depth pieces for Jason Kidd. Dallas is 18 in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 47.1% from the field as a team on the year. The Mavericks are 1 in the league in threes per game as they hit 15.9 triples per contest while they are 6 in three-point shooting by hitting 37.4% of their attempts from beyond the arc.

Dončić (personal), Hardaway Jr. (back spasms), Exum (personal) and Kleber (right small toe dislocation) all were out Friday. Watch for any further updates surrounding their statuses for Saturday.

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Quite a bit of how this game unfolds will be centered around who takes the floor for Dallas. The Mavericks were without Doncic and Hardaway Jr. Friday night, taking two of their top three scoring options out of the mix. Should they return here, it will be a completely different matchup than if they sit in this contest. The Thunder has been explosive offensively this season and Gilgeous-Alexander has stepped up to be a leader with his young supporting cast. Oklahoma City has the rest advantage with having Friday off, while Dallas is playing the second game of a back-to-back situation. With so much murkiness around who will suit up for Dallas, give the advantage to Oklahoma City in this contest.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder

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Oklahoma City enters this game having seen the over post a 10-8 mark in their 18 games this season. The Thunder are 8th in the league in turnovers as they commit an average of 13.4 per contest while playing at an average tempo. They are 13th in the league in pace by averaging 99.9 possessions per game this season. Dallas entered Friday having gone over the number in 12 of their 17 games on the season. The Mavericks had seen the over post a 7-3 mark in their last 10 games entering Friday night. Dallas is 1st in turnovers per game with 11.5 per contest while they are 6th in tempo with 100.5 possessions a night. With the way points have been piled up with both teams, this game likely ends up over the number.

Prediction: Over

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