Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

The Miami Marlins (16-18) wrap up a 3-game road series with the Chicago Cubs (17-16) Sunday. First pitch from Wrigley Field is at 2:20 ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 3-2

The Cubs won 4-2 Saturday. Chicago entered the 8th inning down 2-1 before 3B Nick Madrigal hit a 2-run single to secure the victory and get the home team within 1 game from a series sweep. Chicago has only swept the lowly Oakland Athletics so far this season but has rebounded nicely since returning home Friday after a 1-6 road trip.

The Marlins have dropped 5 straight games since a 3-game sweep of the Cubs between April-28-30. They were swept by the Braves before coming to Wrigley Field but they can still get it done and manufacture runs with above-average base stealing.

Marlins at Cubs projected starters

RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Hayden Wesneski

Alcantara (1-3, 5.09 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 35 1/3 IP.

• Last start:  Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 B, 5 K vs. Atlanta Braves Tuesday
• .315 OBA when the batter swings at the 1st pitch and .190 OBA when batters take the 1st pitch in 2023

Wesneski (2-1, 4.45 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 through 28 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 2 K at Washington Nationals Tuesday
• 1.97 WHIP at home vs 1.02 WHIP on the road

Marlins at Cubs odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

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Marlins at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Cubs 1

The Marlins haven’t had trouble making contact but they have been unlucky on the base paths. Miami has grounded into a league-leading 35 double plays.

Miami has only been swept once this season and prevented a sweep twice in a series finale.

BET MARLINS (-115).

The Marlins are tied for the league’s 2nd worst run line covering percentage, going 12-22 ATS (35.3%), they are a league-worst 6-9 ATS (40.0%) on the road and are the 2nd worst in the league after a loss (5-12 ATS, 29.4%).

AVOID.

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The Marlins’ recent trends lean toward the Over. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a right-hander and 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a starter with at least a 1.30 WHIP.

However, I’m skeptical about Sunday’s Over. Miami is not an offensive juggernaut, scoring an MLB-worst 3.3 runs per game, and the Cubs have gone Under 4 games in a row after a win.

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-115).

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