Miami Marlins at Texas Rangers odds, picks and predictions

The Texas Rangers (64-46) welcome the Miami Marlins (58-53) to Globe Life Field Saturday. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Texas leads 1-0

The Marlins lost the series opener 6-2 Friday, marking their 4th loss in their last 5 games. Miami is 2-5 over its last 7 games and 24-29 on the road this season, sitting 3rd in the NL East — 14 games behind the division-leading Atlanta Braves.

The Rangers swept the Chicago White Sox in a 3-game series to start the week and enter on a 4-game win streak. They are 38-20 at home this season but just 5-5 over their last 10 games overall, although 6 of those outings were on the road. Texas leads the AL West, 1 1/2 games ahead of the Houston Astros.

Marlins at Rangers projected starters

RHP George Soriano vs. RHP Jon Gray

Soriano (0-0, 1.98 ERA) makes his 1st career start and 12th appearance. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 27 1/3 IP.

• Last appearance: No-decision, 1 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K in relief in 8-6 home win vs. Detroit Tigers Sunday
• 2023 away stats: 0-0, 2.25 ERA (12 IP, 3 ER) in 4 relief appearances

Gray (6-5, 3.66 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 108 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 10-9 road loss at Houston Astros on July 24
• 2023 home stats: 2-3, 4.13 ERA (56 2/3 IP, 26 ER) in 10 starts
• Career vs. Marlins: 4-3, 52 2/3 IP, 21 ER, 55 H, 8 BB, 55 K in 9 starts

Marlins at Rangers odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:39 a.m. ET.

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Marlins at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Rangers 5, Marlins 2

PASS.

Betting against the Rangers at home this season hasn’t been wise, and that trend should continue Saturday. They had a strong start to the series as OF Adolis Garcia got a hit in each at-bat and finished with 2 RBIs.

Texas has the 2nd-best home record in the majors, only behind the Tampa Bay Rays. That strength makes the Marlins a pass, but Texas (-190) is far too expensive as an outright play.

BET RANGERS -1.5 (+105).

The Marlins will be starting Soriano, who likely won’t go more than 3 innings. They don’t have a strong bullpen, sitting 17th in the league in reliever ERA (4.12).

Texas has been the best team in the MLB on the run line at home, posting a strong 37-21 record. It is also the best in the majors as a favorite (40-31). On the flip side, Miami is just 26-27 on the run line on the road (the 5th-worst covering rate in MLB).

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LEAN UNDER 9 (-115).

The Under has been a strong play for the Rangers as of late. They have gone Under in 6 of their last 7 games, having allowed just 6 runs throughout their last 4 games.

Miami is 51-56-4 O/U on the season and has gone Under in 4 of its last 5 games as well. Its bats have been a problem as of late, scoring 2 or fewer runs in 4 of its last 5 games.

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