Michigan favored in CFB National Championship odds; time to bet Georgia?

When national championship odds for the 2023-24 college football season opened, the two-time defending champion Georgia Bulldogs were favored to run it back.

Typically, a defending champion remains the betting favorite until they lose a game. But Georgia is undefeated heading into Week 9, and Michigan now sports the shortest odds to win the 2023-24 National Championship.

Is it time to go all in on the Wolverines or bet on the Bulldogs?

Latest odds to win college football National Championship: Michigan overtakes Georgia as betting favorite

Here are the latest National Championship odds listed at the top sports betting sites in the US:

If Georgia had lost to one of the weaker teams in the nation while Michigan had crushed a contender, the change in the National Championship odds would be understandable. Instead of a loss, the Bulldogs had the week off.

The Wolverines did crush their opponent, Michigan State, 49-0. Beating the 2-win Spartans is not something to brag about, though. Plus, Michigan is also dealing with a unique investigation into whether they've been advance scouting opponents in person. 

So, why did Georgia’s odds fall and Michigan’s rise?

One factor could be betting handle on the Wolverines. Sportsbooks adjust odds to protect their liability and put themselves in better position to profit.

A team's odds are bound to get shorter when they play as well as Michigan has, and a team's path to the championship also plays into futures pricing.

It does not necessarily mean they are better (or worse) than Georgia (or anyone else).

Is Michigan and/or Georgia as good as they appear to be?

Georgia has the chance to make history this season by becoming the second team to win the national championship in three consecutive seasons. As the two-time defending champs, they opened as the betting favorites to win this year.

As hard as it is to run it back once, there’s a good reason why only one team has ever won three championships. With all the personnel losses from last year’s squad, the Bulldogs had a lot of work to do this season.

Heading into Week 9, they have a top-10 offense and defense in several key statistical categories. The argument against Georgia is they have yet to play anyone of note. Kentucky is the only ranked team they have a win over.

The same can be said for the Wolverines. Michigan has one of the best defenses in the country and one of the top-scoring offenses. However, it is easy to generate top-notch stats when you play a relatively weak schedule.

Where will the CFP committee rank both teams when the first rankings come out next week? The initial ranking might be surprising given the lack of competition each has faced. The proof will be in the pudding for both teams down the stretch.

The Bulldogs are about to run a gauntlet down the stretch with games against three ranked opponents: No. 16 Missouri, No. 12 Ole Miss, and No. 21 Tennessee. Michigan’s CFP dreams will rest on whether the Wolverines can defeat Ohio State for the third consecutive season.

Bets to consider: Fade Michigan, Pick Georgia to win National Championship

Michigan has been in the national championship conversation the last two seasons, making the CFP both years. As good as they have looked, you must remember that it is not hard to look fantastic when you play mediocre teams.

Regular season dominance does not necessarily equate to CFP success. The Wolverines rolled through the Big Ten the last two seasons only to fall to TCU and Georgia in the semi-finals.

Georgia has not looked fantastic at times this season, but they have managed to find a way to win week in and week out.

While teams need to win in the regular season to have a shot at the national championship, it is just as important that a team improves throughout the season. The Bulldogs did just that the last two years and entered the CFP playing their best football.

When top-ranked teams roll through their schedule, you typically see their odds get shorter throughout the season, not plateau or get longer like Georgia’s has.

If you have not already bet on the Bulldogs, it might be time to do so before their odds get shorter.