Michigan State vs. Central Michigan 9/1: Odds, predictions and best bets

After very strong conference seasons and bowl wins in 2021, both of these teams failed to crack .500 and make it back to the postseason last year. Luckily, it’s the (sort of) opening week of a new season, and both squads have the opportunity to start fresh, so let’s take a look at this in-state Week 1 clash between Michigan State and Central Michigan.

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Michigan State head coach Mel Tucker is in a pretty interesting spot after a massively disappointing 2022, as he signed a massive $95 million 10-year deal shortly after a great 2021 campaign that ended with a Peach Bowl win over Pittsburgh. That offer was made in no small part due to State’s victory over Michigan in a clash between undefeated top-8 squads, although it could be argued that the driving force of that win was Kenneth Walker’s superhero performance rather than Tucker’s football acumen.

If Tucker needs to live up to his huge price tag, with another result like the 5-7 record last season, questions will begin to fly about his position. Central’s Jim McElwain is also coming off of a letdown campaign with a 4-8 record, but he’s probably earned a bit more leeway; he inherited a 1-11 Chippewas squad, and got them within a score of a MAC Championship in 2019. The 2021 Chips went 9-4 with a Sun Bowl win over PAC-12 school Washington State, but crashed down to 4-8 a year ago, so McElwain and his squad will be looking for a bounce back.

MSU was hit pretty hard by the transfer portal, particularly on the offensive side. A pair of major wideouts are gone as top pass catcher Keon Coleman went Florida State and four-star talent Germie Bernard is now a Washington Husky. Perhaps most concerningly, starting QB Payton Thorne transferred out to Auburn. Make no mistake, Thorne is not a particularly good football player, but it’s an indictment on the state of the program that someone of his caliber who was relatively assured of a starting job was looking for greener pastures, especially considering that Auburn also went 5-7 a year ago. New starting QB Noah Kim looked sharp in limited time last year, but like so many other players who will get significant time in this offense, he is a relatively unknown quantity.

Central Michigan is also dealing with a lot of change, as they have been assessed a -7 offensive TARP, the worst possible score for the measure that quantifies gains and losses through graduation and the transfer portal. That number essentially means that they’re replacing everything, including the backfield of Daniel Richardson at quarterback, and lead rusher Lew Nichols. Granted, neither one of them had a great 2022, so it’s not like finding their fill-ins will be an insurmountable task. In fact, the QB change could turn into a positive for Central, as the guys they have in the building would offer them the chance to shift to a new, more dynamic play style. Neither one of Jase Bauer or Bert Emanuel Jr. have had the chance to show much throwing the ball, but they both have a good track record as running QBs, especially Emanuel who racked up 496 rushing yards and 7 scores on the ground in just 4 appearances last season.

This is a great football number, as the cover here just requires Central to keep the game within two touchdowns, something they can at least do via a backdoor cover late in the game. That being said, they may not need to; this one could be too close for the Spartans’ comfort from wire to wire. We see this game being a messy matchup as both teams try to figure out their new personnel, and in Central’s case, perhaps even an entirely new approach. Even in their down year, Central covered this number against a decent Oklahoma State team and came close against Penn State. To make this bet and grab a great sign-up deal, go to DraftKings, where you can claim $200 in free bets instantly after your first bet of $5. Click our exclusive DK link here.

In addition to the potential issues we envision on offense, there are positives to pick out in the CMU defense. Central actually had PFF’s 34th-ranked defense last year, and the defense’s TARP is quite positive, with a mark of 3.5, indicating a net inflow of talent. With a game that could be dominated by defense and have a relatively lethargic pace of play, meaning fewer total possessions, we like the MSU team total to stay under 30.5, or even potentially lower if you could find anywhere down to 28.5. If you’re a fan of this bet, place it on FanDuel, and if you’re a new customer, you can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets as well as $100 off of NFL Sunday Ticket through YouTube and YouTube TV.

Score Prediction: MSU 25, CMU 17

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