Michigan State vs Michigan Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

The Spartans got the best of the Wolverines in the last matchup back in January, but our betting picks detail why all the value is on the total in tonight's rematch. Find out more in our Michigan State vs. Michigan betting picks.

The Michigan Wolverines host the Michigan State Spartans in Big Ten action on Saturday night. Although neither team is in the AP Top 25, this should still be an entertaining clash between rivals.

The Spartans are No. 35 in the NET rankings and will likely return to the NCAA tournament, while the Wolverines are currently on the bubble and need to start stringing together some wins if they want to make it in.

College basketball betting lines opened with the Wolverines as 1.5-point home favorites before shifting to -2. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan State vs. Michigan on February 18.

Michigan State vs Michigan best odds

Michigan State vs Michigan picks and predictions

The Michigan State Spartans are coming off three extremely low-scoring games which didn't see more than 121 points scored. In their last contest, they crushed Ohio State 62-41, holding a usually efficient Buckeyes offense to just 28% shooting from the floor.

The Spartans have been excellent defensively, especially in conference play where they rank first in scoring defense (62.7 points per game) and opponent field goal percentage (40.6%). 

However, MSU has also struggled to put the ball in the hoop and are averaging just 64.6 ppg with a 43.7 FG% against Big Ten foes. The Wolverines have also been stingy on defense in conference play, limiting opponents to a 41.9 FG%. Like the Spartans, they are also coming off a pair of extremely low-scoring contests.

The Michigan Wolverines play at a below-average pace and prefer to run their offense through center Hunter Dickenson. Meanwhile, the Spartans play at one of the slowest paces in the country and rank outside the Top 300 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. 

When these teams previously clashed on January 7, they combined to shoot just 36% from the floor and totalled 112 points. Even if both programs improve from those ugly numbers, I don't see them surpassing the O/U of 135.5 tonight.

My best bet: Under 136.5 (-110 at bet365)

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Michigan State vs Michigan spread analysis

The Spartans have won back-to-back games and are fresh off a dominant 62-41 win against the Buckeyes in Columbus. It's been an up-and-down season for Michigan State, but Tom Izzo's squad is still 8-6 straight up and against the spread in conference play and has been competitive. 

The Wolverines are just half a game behind the Spartans in the Big Ten standings with an 8-7 mark. They're currently on a two-game skid and are coming off a 64-59 road loss to Wisconsin.

Michigan defended well in that contest, holding the Badgers to just 33% shooting from the floor and it'll try to bring that same intensity to the Crisler Center today where the Wolverines are 10-4 SU and are limiting opponents to a 40.4 FG%. 

Meanwhile, the Spartans are 3-4 SU on the road this season and have covered the spread just once in their last five games away from the Breslin Center.

MSU has three players scoring more than 12 points per game with Tyson Walker (13.8 ppg) leading the way and A.J. Hoggard (12.1 ppg, 5.8 assists per game) pulling the strings at point guard. 

The Wolverines also have three players averaging over 12 ppg, led by Dickinson (17.7 ppg, 8.5 rebounds per game) and Jett Howard (14.6 ppg). 

Michigan State vs Michigan Over/Under analysis

Not only are the Spartans significantly better on defense (17th in adjusted defensive efficiency) than offense (79th in adjusted offensive efficiency), but they also shoot just 43.3% on the road.

Both teams are active on the defensive glass but struggle on the offensive boards with MSU ranking 249th in offensive rebound rate and Michigan coming in at 270th.

The Wolverines do an excellent job of taking care of the ball and are seventh in the country in turnover rate (14.1%), but also rank just 339th in opponent turnover rate (15%).

The Spartans are 350th in opponent turnover rate, which means both teams will be able to set up their half-court offenses and won't be under pressure to move the ball quickly. 

When these two schools met up in Lansing last month, the Spartans earned a 59-53 victory after an ugly first half that saw both sides combine for just 16 field goals made.

Michigan State vs Michigan betting trend to know

The home team is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings between these Big Ten rivals. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Michigan.