Michigan State vs. Ohio State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 11
Our Michigan State vs. Ohio State prediction based on the best college football odds suggests a favorable day for the Buckeyes passing game, but what’s the best way to attack such a game script from a betting standpoint?
Ohio State (9-0) welcomes a beleaguered Michigan State (3-6) group into Ohio Stadium on Saturday night, looking to maintain its standing as the top-ranked team in the College Football Playoff Rankings.
After a couple of quieter games in the scoring department, the Buckeyes should get the offense back on track in a major way.
To accompany our Week 11 college football prediction, here is our best Michigan State vs. Ohio State prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Michigan State vs. Ohio State prediction
Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 97.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
When you see that Michigan State ranks somewhere near the middle of the pack in pass defense across FBS, allowing an average of 235.4 passing yards per game, you might be inclined to believe that Ohio State won’t throw it all over the Spartans on Saturday. But these defensive averages across the Big Ten are completely skewed for the fact that the conference is filled primarily with teams incapable of passing the football effectively.
When Sparty faced Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy a few weeks ago, he cleared this mark with 287 passing yards in a 49-0 win. In that spirit, I’d take a look at Kyle McCord’s passing line for this weekend and see FanDuel’s number at 282.5 (-114 on Over). It’s attainable against a defense that has mostly faced opponents who are allergic to the forward pass.
But digging deeper, if I’m buying the Ohio State passing attack in Week 11, the more effective way to approach it is with Marvin Harrison Jr.’s receiving line. At 97.5 yards, that line represents only 34.5% of McCord’s passing line, but Harrison is responsible for 35.8% of Ohio State’s receiving yards on the year.
This depleted line feels like an overreaction to Harrison’s 25-yard outing against Rutgers. If McCord is to clear his passing line, it almost has to come from the contributions of Harrison. McCord has cleared this line just three times all year, while Harrison has six games with triple-digit receiving yards.
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Michigan State vs. Ohio State best odds
If you want to shop around for the best odds on this prop, patience may end up being a virtue. Only FanDuel has released player prop lines on this game as of Thursday afternoon.
That said, I like the value we’re getting at FanDuel on this prop enough to lock it in before seeing where the rest of the sportsbooks set the line. I’d take Harrison’s receiving line up to 109.5 yards this week.
Michigan State vs. Ohio State odds
Ohio State opened as a 24.5-point favorite and has rocketed up to between -31 and -31.5 across our best sports betting apps. At this time, 57% of wagers have come in on the Buckeyes.
The total opened at 68 in August, but has plummeted in the weeks leading up to the game. We’re seeing the number now between 47 and 47.5. With that drastic adjustment, 76% of wagers have come in on the Over.
Michigan State vs. Ohio State game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 11 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
- How to watch: NBC
- Weather: 44 degrees, 6 mph winds, 0% precipitation
Michigan State-Ohio State prediction made 11/09/2023 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
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