Michigan State vs. Washington: Odds, predictions, props and best bets
Michigan State improved to 2-0 last Saturday with a win over Richmond. Since then, it’s been a chaotic week in East Lansing. Head coach Mel Tucker is suspended as the university completes an ongoing investigation into alleged sexual harassment. Secondary coach Harlon Barnett takes over as acting head coach and he’ll be advised by former Spartans’ head coach Mark Dantonio. Michigan State welcomes in the No. 8 ranked team in the country in the Washington Huskies (2-0). The Spartans are sizable home underdogs.
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These two programs are at different stages. Washington enters the season with a sixth-year quarterback in Michael Penix Jr. who is a dark horse contender for the Heisman Trophy. They expect to compete to win the Pac 12 and potentially be in the mix for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Their No. 8 ranking confirms that. As for Michigan State, they are still building the program trying to grow from last year’s five win season. A wrench has been thrown in those plans with the suspension of Mel Tucker. A lot of the handicap for this game will come down to how this week’s events will impact the concentration and effort level of Michigan State.
We’re two weeks into the season, but Michael Penix Jr. is making an early statement in the Heisman race. He’s tied for the third best odds at BetMGM behind only Caleb Williams and Jordan Travis. Washington has scored 99 points through two games. Penix is completing over 73% of his passes for 859 yards and 8 touchdowns. Washington currently leads college football averaging 9.1 yards per play. They have three receivers in Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk who are averaging over 90 yards per game. This offense looks nearly impossible to slow down right now. It’s no fluke either, as this offense ranked top-10 in points per game and yards per play last season as well.
The Spartans are 2-0 to enter the season and have handled Central Michigan and Richmond with relative ease. Michigan State has done what they needed to do in the first two weeks, but their Week 3 contest against Washington is a huge step up in competition. Junior quarterback Noah Kim struggled a bit in the opener, but was surgical in the win over Richmond. The defense has been superb, keeping opponents to just 3.2 yards per play, but quality of competition has a lot to do with that number. There’s some question marks about the Spartans’ secondary and the lack of experience there, and this Washington team can certainly take advantage of any issues on the backend.
We’re staying away from betting a side in this game due to the utter chaos surrounding the Michigan State program currently. They can quit and no-show this weekend, or they can galvanize themselves and put forth an incredible effort and neither would be all too shocking. However, we do expect points scored in this one. These teams played last season and combined for 67 points. Penix and the Washington receivers appear to be even better this season. Michigan State ranked outside the top 100 in pass defense last season. The Washington defense was middling as well. Noah Kim is coming off a performance that won him Big Ten player of the week. This total is low enough where we’re looking to invest in the over.
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Entering the season, there was hype surrounding the Washington offense. Michael Penix Jr. was a top-10 Heisman contender and they were returning a lot of weapons that powered a top-10 offense in the country last season. Nothing they’ve done in the first two weeks of this season has splashed any cold water on the Huskies’ offense. Michigan State ranked 104th defending the pass last season. Even with no distractions, we think Washington would have plenty of success on offense this week.
Score prediction: Washington 38, Michigan State 24
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