Michigan vs. Iowa: Big Ten Championship Odds, Lines, Picks & Best Bets
- Matchup: Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Michigan -4000, Iowa +1400
- Spread: Michigan -23.5 (-108), Iowa +23.5 (-112)
- Total: Over/Under 34.5 (-118/-104)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
For all the adversity that the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (12-0) have faced this season, the reigning Big Ten champions find themselves one win away from a second consecutive trip to the College Football Playoff.
Standing in their way are the No. 17 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2), who have rode their stellar defense to a surprising 10-win season and a berth in Saturday’s Big Ten championship game – which virtually nobody expects the Hawkeyes to win.
Can Iowa pull off a stunner in Indianapolis? Or will the Wolverines remain unbeaten with another victory?
Last Time Out
In the biggest game of the entire college football season, Michigan once again ended a perfect season for archrival Ohio State, this time relying on its defense to force two timely turnovers and claim a 30-24 win – its third straight victory against the Buckeyes.
With the win, the Wolverines all but guaranteed themselves a spot in the playoffs if they can outlast the Hawkeyes, who barely squeaked past Nebraska last week in a 13-10 rock fight that was emblematic of Iowa’s entire season. It was the Hawkeyes’ fourth game in the last five weeks decided by three points or less.
How to Bet the Side
The spread for Saturday’s game doesn’t seem unusual at first glance considering the clear gap between these two teams. When combined with the total, though, it’s one of the most atypical betting lines you’ll find.
Michigan is favored by more than three touchdowns in a game that is only expected to see roughly five total touchdowns. Translation: This one will be ugly, and your preference on the side depends mostly on your willingness to trust Iowa in any facet on Saturday.
We know what to expect from the Wolverines, who have been one of the most complete and dominant teams in the country from the first week of the season. Counting only games between FBS foes, they lead the nation in scoring margin (+27.3 PPG) and have outscored teams by a ridiculous 0.42 points per play – also first among all teams.
The biggest draw is Michigan’s defense, which leads the country in scoring (10.3 PPG) while ranking second in total defense (246.8 YPG) and first downs allowed (158).
That doesn’t tell the full story for the Wolverines, though, as quarterback J.J. McCarthy (2,483 passing yards, 19 TDs) ranks second in completion rate (74.3%), and star running back Blake Corum leads the nation in rushing touchdowns (22).
Iowa’s defense belongs in the same conversation as Michigan’s, though its offense hardly belongs in the same stratosphere and is once again among the worst in college football. Since losing starting quarterback Cade McNamara in Week 5, the Hawkeyes have averaged 15 points per game and scored 20 or more points just twice in that stretch.
That simply won’t cut it against this vaunted Wolverines defense, which made Ohio State’s offense look completely disjointed for 60 minutes last week and has terrorized opponents all season. Meanwhile, Michigan’s offense has consistently answered the call, even against some of the best defenses in the country.
Nine of the Wolverines’ 12 wins have been decided by more than 23 points, with all three outliers coming in the last three weeks with head coach Jim Harbaugh suspended. He’s back this week, however, and his team will be out for blood in a game that could theoretically vault it to the top spot in the playoff field with an impressive final margin.
This is a mismatch of epic proportions for a conference championship game, and it’s hard to imagine what this line would need to be to fade the favored Wolverines. Even with a low-scoring affair expected on Saturday, Michigan is more than three touchdowns better than Iowa on a neutral field.
Pick: Michigan -23.5 (-108)
The immediate instinct is to bet the Under in this game because of the caliber of defenses on the field this weekend. But with a total this low, the Over is the more attractive play.
Don’t mistake that for even a shred of confidence in the Hawkeyes’ offense. Rather, this is a bet on the superiority of the Wolverines’ offense entering Saturday. Michigan averages 37.6 points per game and has scored at least 30 points in 11 of its first 12 contests, with the lone exception coming in a gutsy 24-15 road win over Penn State.
Iowa’s defense is legitimate, ranking fourth in points allowed (12.2 PPG) entering Saturday. However, McCarthy and company shouldn’t have trouble putting up points in this one, even against a defense that has impressed on paper.
It will help if the Hawkeyes can muster a garbage-time score in a game that should be decided well before the fourth quarter, but there’s a chance that the Wolverines score enough to hit the Over on their own.
Pick: Over 34.5 points (-118)
Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
