Michigan vs Iowa Prediction, Odds and Picks
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Point Spread Pick
This is the kind of spread you don’t see very often in a Power 5 Conference Championship game. Iowa has an opportunity to pull off the biggest money line upset in championship weekend history with a win. While there is likely slim to no chance Iowa wins outright, I believe they will be able to keep things within 22 points thanks to defense, defense, and more defense. It’s no secret that Iowa’s offense has been non-existent – dead last in yards per game (246.3) and averaging just 14 points per game over the last 5 games – but the 4th ranked scoring defense in the country should be able to limit Michigan’s production.
Iowa’s defense has been incredible all season: 4th in scoring defense, 4th in defensive passing efficiency, 3rd in red zone defense. Michigan arguably has the best offense on paper the Hawkeyes have faced this season, but the tale of the tape plays in favor of Iowa. Michigan has no reason to run the score up or roll out many risky plays considering a 2-possession lead likely gets the job done against this Iowa offense. If (and when) the Wolverines secure said lead, they have proven they are comfortable feeding the rock to RB Blake Corum and slowing down the tempo to chew clock.
Michigan ranks 12th in time of possession amongst FBS teams despite ranking 121st in plays per game (63.1). How exactly does that work? The run game is incredibly efficient and the Wolverines have been phenomenal at limiting turnovers. With that being said, this is the perfect game to lean on that slow-and-steady approach for some smooth sailing to a playoff appearance. As I don’t expect Michigan to get too flashy on offense and I have faith in the Iowa defense to make at least a few big stops, I’m willing to back the Hawkeyes on this unprecedented spread.
Iowa +22 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.
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Game Totals Pick
The Iowa Hawkeyes are redefining traditional ways of winning football games and have created an unprecedented betting market never before seen in conference championship week. This is the lowest total for a conference title game ever, and for good reason. Iowa has gone an astounding 40-19-1 (67.8%) on the under since 2019. Nine of their 12 regular season contests went under 35 combined points, including the last 7 straight. In a matchup of a run-first offense against a non-existent offense paired with two elite defenses, I’m going with the under.
Iowa’s defense has been incredible all season – 4th in scoring defense, 4th in defensive passing efficiency, 3rd in red zone defense – but the Wolverines might have the only unit in the country that is comfortably better. Michigan ranks top 10 in practically every major defensive category: Scoring defense, yards per game allowed, passing defense, rush defense, sacks, and turnovers gained. Iowa ranks dead last in FBS with only 246.3 yards per game. The fact that they have 10 wins is incredible in of itself, but I struggle to see a path in this matchup for the Hawkeyes to score even one touchdown.
Michigan has shown they are comfortable leaning on the run game and avoiding any flashy plays with a big lead, such as their 24-15 win over Penn State where QB JJ McCarthy didn’t record a single pass attempt in the second half. Even with just a 2-possession lead, which they are bound to have at some point in this game, I expect Michigan’s ground and pound to take over behind RB Blake Corum, who leads all FBS teams in rushing touchdowns. Furthermore, there is no need for the Wolverines to run up the score in any way, shape, fashion or form. They win, and they are in. Simple as that, no need to “convince” the committee. This very well could be a 31-3 or 28-6 kind of game. It might not be pretty, but I’m riding the wave of Iowa unders and will be going with the under in the Big Ten Championship game.
Under 35.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Ryan is a die-hard sports fan with a passion for crunching numbers and finding winning picks. He works on the Pickswise social media team and recently began handicapping MLB games. He has years of experience delivering winning picks in both college football and the UFC and is looking to expand his areas of expertise. For Ryan Bunnell media enquiries, please email [email protected].
