NLDS Game 2: Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and predictions
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers meet Monday night in Game 2 of their best-of-5 NL Division Series. First pitch at Dodger Stadium is slated for 9:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Dodgersodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Arizona leads 1-0
The Diamondbacks banged out 4 home runs in their Wild Card sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers 2-0 last week. Arizona hit 4 HRs in Friday's Game 1 win, an 11-2 shellacking of LHP Clayton Kershaw and a Dodgers lineup that produced just 4 hits.
Dating back to the regular season, Los Angeles had won 5 in a row against the Snakes until Friday. The Dodgers now turn to rookie RHP Bobby Miller after Kershaw lasted just 1/3 of an inning in the series opener.
Diamondbacks at Dodgers projected starters
RHP Zac Gallen vs. RHP Bobby Miller
Gallen went 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA across 34 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.12 WHIP, 2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 210 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 4 K in 5-2 home win vs. Milwaukee Brewers in Wednesday's NL Wild Card Game 2; has allowed just 4 ER in last 18 1/3 IP
- 2023 road stats: 5-6, 4.42 ERA in 108 IP across 18 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Dodgers: 1-2, 3.90 ERA in 30 IP; allowed 11 R in 10 IP in 2023 regular season
- Last week's turn vs. Milwaukee marked his 1st postseason action
Miller went 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA across 22 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.1 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 124 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K in 5-2 win at San Francisco Giants Oct. 1
- 2023 home stats: 5-3, 4.55 ERA in 57 1/3 IP across 10 starts
- Career starts vs. Diamondbacks: 1-0, 3.00 in 12 IP in 2 starts this season
- Monday's turn will mark his postseason debut
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Diamondbacks at Dodgers odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 7:38 a.m. ET.
Diamondbacks at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 5, Dodgers 4
Monday's pitching match-up swings this play in favor of the visitors, but with this pricing, just by the slimmest of margins.
Gallen has pitched quite well down the stretch, and he's quite tough on lefty bats which is a big key against Los Angeles. Miller is a rookie making his postseason debut after a 7-day layoff. And that rest is an interesting point of comparison in this mound match-up.
Gallen makes this start on 4-day rest. He logged a 2.41 ERA in such situations during the regular season. That's his best interval. Miller last started Oct. 1; 6-plus days is his worst interval (6.14 ERA).
Miller has also had some fortunate rates around the margins that have somewhat artificially tamped down his ERA. His batting average on balls in play was a .277. In high-leverage situations, it was a .238.
The Dodgers have the better offense and the better bullpen, but the Snakes counter with the better defense.
But again the pricing here doesn't make for much leverage at all. Consider a partial-unit play on ARIZONA (+125).
PASS.
The game has an Over lean, and that takes some air out of an Arizona-plus-1.5 play that already has pricing issues.
Both bullpens have been terrific over recent weeks. But they have filed some surface numbers that put them too far out over their skis.
Add in some solid scoring conditions at Dodger Stadium.
TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-120), but again, consider a partial-unit play unless a better tag avails itself. The public is dialed in on this game, especially considering the nature of the Dodgers as a public team.
