Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 8-3-23 MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Milwaukee Brewers meet in the opener of their four-game NL Central division set in MLB action from American Family Field on Thursday. Milwaukee has owned this series in recent years and 2023 has been no different. Can the Pirates get one back on the Brewers? Let’s dive in and find out.

Pirates Split With Tigers

Give Pittsburgh some credit, as the Pirates have won 2 of their last 3 series and managed a split with the Tigers after a 6-3 loss in Wednesday’s series finale. The defeat dropped the Pirates to 48-59 on the year, 9 games back in the NL Wild Card race. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with 95 hits while Jack Suwinski has a team-high 21 home runs and 52 RBIs this season. Andrew McCutchen also has a team-high .263 batting average and .384 OBP this season. Mitch Keller will get the start for the Pirates in this one and is 9-7 with a 3.97 ERA and 145 strikeouts this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Team Facts

- The Pirates have lost each of their last nine games against NL Central opponents following a loss.

- The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against the Brewers following a loss.

- The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games against NL Central opponents.

- The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games against NL Central opponents.

- The Pirates have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last seven night games against NL Central opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

- Jack Suwinski has recorded an RBI in each of the Pirates' last three night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.

- Mitch Keller has recorded seven or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 12 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

- Bryan Reynolds has recorded two or more total bases in five of his last six appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.

- Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in two of the Pirates' last three road games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.

- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates' last seven games against opponents that held a winning record.

- Bryan Reynolds has scored a run in each of the Pirates' last five games as underdogs.

- Andrew McCutchen ranks 10th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.384) this season.

Brewers Neck & Neck In NL Central Race

The Milwaukee Brewers have had the benefit of the Cincinnati Reds dropping games in the race in the NL Central, but games like Milwaukee’s 3-2 loss on Wednesday have left the Brewers unable to make up ground in the race amidst the lost opportunities. The loss pushed the Brew Crew to 58-51 on the year, tied for the final NL Wild Card spot and 0.5 games back in the NL Central division race. Christian Yelich leads the Brewers with 115 hits, 60 RBIs and a .286 batting average as well as a .369 OBP while Willy Adames comes in with a team-leading 17 home runs with Yelich just one off of the pace at 16. Yelich also leads the Brewers with 26 doubles while Adames has the unfortunate distinction of leading the Brewers with 111 strikeouts this season. Adrian Houser will start for the Brewers here and is 3-3 with a 4.43 ERA and 52 strikeouts this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Team Facts

- The Brewers have won each of their last nine night games against the Pirates at American Family Field following a loss.

- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games against National League opponents following a road loss.

- The Brewers have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games against the Pirates.

- The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four night games at American Family Field against National League opponents.

- The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Brewers' last five games as favourites.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

- William Contreras has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last six appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

- Christian Yelich has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Brewers' last seven home games against NL opponents that held a losing record.

- Christian Yelich has hit a home run in three of the Brewers' last five games against NL Central opponents.

- Christian Yelich has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers' last 14 home games.

- Christian Yelich has scored at least one run in each of his last five appearances against the Pirates.

Matchup/League Facts

- The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 28th in the league for hits this season (830).

- The Milwaukee Brewers ranks 28th in the league for batting average this season (.232).

- The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks 27th in the league for hits this season (836).

- The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks 27th in the league for runs scored this season (442).

Chris’ Pick

I’m looking at the over here. I just think this is a spot where we’re going to see runs as Mitch Keller hasn’t been very good in a lot of his recent outings and Houser has suffered through his fair share of struggles in Milwaukee so far this season. All in all, I look for this to be a fairly high-scoring affair and one to get well into double digits. Give me the over.