MLB All-Star Game Picks, Predictions & Odds: Will American League Continue Dominance?

sportsbookreview.com

10 July 2023

The American League looks for continued dominance of the Midsummer Classic, having won nine consecutive MLB All-Star Games. Read on for our 2023 MLB All-Star Game picks based on the MLB odds from our best MLB betting sites.

The National League has not won an All-Star Game since winning three straight from 2010-12 by a combined 16-2 margin. Despite that lack of success, the NL was a slight -120 moneyline favorite in last year’s game. They jumped out to a 2-0 first-inning lead, then surrendered three runs in the fourth inning, on a two-run home run by Giancarlo Stanton (later named the game’s MVP) and a solo home run by Byron Buxton, en route to a 3-2 defeat.

The AL’s All-Star Game dominance dates back much further, going 21-3-1 in the previous 25. Can the NL overcome those recent struggles, or are there other trends we have our sights set on?

Below, we look at our best 2023 MLB All-Star Game picks based on the odds from our best sports betting apps (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

MLB All-Star Game pick

Under 7.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Pitchers have had the advantage at the All-Star Game for nearly two decades, as the Under has cashed in 13 of the last 16 Midsummer Classics. An average of 6.75 runs have been scored in that span, and the last time a nine-inning All-Star Game had double-digit runs scored was back in 2005. And it has been especially difficult to score runs early, as last year’s All-Star Game broke a four-year streak of no runs being scored in the first inning.

The game’s format makes it difficult for batters to find a rhythm, as most will not get more than two plate appearances, and upwards of 20 pitchers will be used on both sides.

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This year’s venue also does not help offenses, as Baseball Savant Park Factors label T-Mobile Park the lowest of all 31 MLB stadiums (which includes London Stadium) in terms of runs scored, wOBACon, and OBP.

Throw in the fact that cool temperatures (low of 55 degrees in Seattle on Tuesday night) and two of the sport’s biggest stars, Aaron Judge and Mike Trout (four of the last nine AL MVPs), are not participating due to injury, and this has all the makings of another low-scoring affair.

National League vs. American League best odds

DraftKings (-110)

DraftKings is our go-to shop as Under backers, given that FanDuel and BetMGM are slightly juiced to the Under. There has not been any movement or discrepancies in this line at any sportsbook, so the game is likely to go off with the same 7.5-run total.

National League vs. American League odds

National League vs. American League odds analysis

Bettors must feel that the National League’s nine-year losing streak is ending, as the American League opened as high as -125 moneyline favorites but is now as low as -110 at WynnBET. The most significant moneyline movement is at DraftKings, as the AL was as high as -130 four days ago and is now slightly higher than other shops but still at -120.

If you are looking to play the +1.5 run line, WynnBET and BetMGM offer +180 odds to lay the -1.5 runs with the AL, a number it has covered in six of its last nine victories.

Based on DraftKings’ betting splits, the most lopsided action is on the total, with 79% of the bets siding with the Over. The moneyline handle is split 55/45 in favor of the NL.