MLB Futures Bets: Value on Jung, Strider, Eflin Heading Into Second Half
What kind of performances can we expect during the second half of the 2023 MLB season from from Josh Jung, Spencer Strider, and Zach Eflin? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB futures predictions for the rest of the MLB season. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Friday! Major League Baseball is back in action tonight following the All-Star break, but before bettors lock in their action for today’s slate, they should consider a few looks on the futures market for the second of the campaign.
Below, we take a look at the Cy Young markets in both the American and National League, and we offer our thoughts on who is most likely to earn American League Rookie of the Year honors.
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MLB Futures – Second Half 2023
Josh Jung to win AL Rookie of the Year (+135), FanDuel
During the first half of the MLB season, Josh Jung hit 19 home runs and drove in 56 runs for the Texas Rangers, the team with the most runs scored in all of baseball as of this writing. Jung possesses some of the best power metrics in the game, ranking in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity, 87th percentile in HardHit%, and the 83rd percentile in barrel rate. On top of his impressive metrics with the bat, Jung has also been elite defensively – ranking in the 92nd percentile in outs above average. There is always a risk with the media being biased towards the northeast players, Masataka Yoshida in this case, but this is clearly Jung’s award to lose across the final few months of the season.
Spencer Strider to win NL Cy Young (+350), Caesars
2023 is shaping up to be one of the most lukewarm National League Cy Young races in recent memory. Zac Gallen, who is currently the betting favorite for this award, owns a respectable 3.04 ERA and a 2.77 FIP, but he has not done anything elite this year. Spencer Strider, his main competition for this honor, owns a 3.44 ERA and a 2.84 FIP, which is far from elite. Nevertheless, Strider has done a much better job limiting hard contact this summer, ranking in the 61st percentile in this metric, compared to Gallen, who ranks in only the 24th percentile. Strider also ranks in the 99th percentile in strikeout percentage, combining elite extension and velocity with plus-spin rates to make him one of the more feared pitchers in the game. In a toss-up situation, Strider is likely to earn more votes for this award due to his healthy lead in strikeouts, in addition to the fact that he plays for the team with the best record in all of baseball.
Zach Eflin to win AL Cy Young (+15000), FanDuel
If looking for a longshot in the futures market for the second half of 2023, look no further than Zach Eflin. Eflin still being priced at 150:1 to win this award is simply incomprehensible. Through his first 17 turns in the rotation, Eflin has posted a 3.25 ERA, 2.97 xERA, and a 3.12 FIP. He ranks in the 81st percentile in average exit velocity, 68th percentile in strikeout rate, and 98th percentile in walk percentage. Framber Valdez, the current betting favorite for this award owns a slightly better 2.51 ERA and 2.82 FIP, but has a 3.86 xERA and has allowed more hard contact than nearly every other pitcher in baseball – ranking in the 6th percentile in average exit velocity and the 18th percentile in HardHit%. Eflin has been Tampa Bay’s best starting pitcher this year, and there are arguments to be made that he has been a top-three pitcher in the American League overall. At 150:1, this is a more worthwhile risk than going to a gas station for a lottery ticket.
