Braves vs Rangers Prediction, Picks, Odds

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20 May 2023

Braves vs Rangers Prediction, Picks, Odds

Between Spencer Strider's insane strikeout rate and Nathan Eovaldi's ability to go super deep, this matchup between the Braves and Rangers is expected to be a pitcher's duel. Find out how to take advantage in our MLB betting picks below.

The Atlanta Braves are 1-5 in their last six but will send 43% K% pitcher Spencer Strider to the mound tonight to secure a series win vs. the Texas Rangers, who enter as +135 home dogs at Globe Life Field.

With a pair of two of the league's best FIP pitchers, early runs will be hard to come by for both offenses, and with some question marks in the bullpen, targeting the first five innings is the preferred way to bet this total.

Braves vs Rangers odds

Braves vs Rangers predictions

There’s a reason tonight’s 7.5-run total is tied for the lowest of the slate and that’s because of this elite pitching matchup.

Nathan Eovaldi currently has the No. 4 FIP in baseball and hasn’t allowed a run in three straight starts, having gone at least eight innings in each of those games. His command has been elite (eight walks in 53+ innings) and he’s allowed just a single home run on 779 pitches and 206 batters faced.

He has a tough matchup vs. one of the best offenses in baseball, but Globe Life Field is one of the best run-suppressing parks in baseball (25th in runs) and is playing tougher for home runs today at -4% compared to a season-long projection of +2%, per Ballpark Pal.

If Eovaldi can keep throwing up donuts, Spencer Strider can keep things tight as well as this is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He leads the league in K% at an absurd 43% and also in FIP.

A solid FIP indicates a pitcher who keeps the walks in check and keeps the ball in the park and with two starters who have sub-2.00 FIPs, this is a great game to target the first-five Under 3.5 at even money or better.

Strider’s K% can get him out of any trouble and this is not a great Texas Rangers lineup without Corey Seager. Things could get even worse for them in two-strike counts as batters are hitting just .119 vs. Strider in those situations.

I don’t trust either bullpen as the Atlanta Braves are having closer issues and the Rangers’ relievers rank 23rd in ERA. Isolating these two elite FIP pitchers in a friendly park is ideal and I think the books are undervaluing Eovaldi slightly tonight on the moneyline vs. an Atlanta team that has just one win over its last six games.

With this being an interleague game, the unfamiliarity between the pitchers and hitters favors Strider and Eovaldi as well.

My best bet: First-five Under 3.5 (+105 at Pinnacle)

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Braves vs Rangers moneyline analysis

It might be tough to bet against Spencer Strider, but Nathan Eovaldi has been an elite pitcher this season and is worth backing at plus money as a home dog.

Eovaldi has gone at least 24 outs in three straight starts and hasn’t given up a single run over that stretch. His 1.95 FIP ranks fourth in baseball and is not that far behind league-leading Spencer Strider.

Strider is one of the favorites to win the NL Cy Young, but his 43% K% is a number that should regress as it’s fairly unsustainable and Eovaldi can hold the Atlanta bats in check if Strider is pitching to his numbers tonight.

Atlanta leads the NL East with a 26-16 record but things haven’t been going swimmingly of late for the talented team as the Braves are 1-5 in their last six games and lost another game in the late innings last night as their bullpen has some issues.

Atlanta will likely be without middle-relievers Joe Jimenez and Dylan Lee — who threw over 20 pitches last night — while closer Raisel Iglesias is struggling, having blown his last save opportunity and sports a 10.80 ERA this season. The team leader in saves, AJ Minter, is also struggling with an 8.03 ERA and coming off a loss in his last appearance.

Strider’s high strikeouts can elevate his pitch count and leave plenty of outs for his bullpen. The Atlanta starter is averaging 5.8 innings per start compared to Eovaldi who has been getting deeper of late and is averaging 6.66 innings per start on the season. If both starters are pitching to their numbers and Eovaldi can get deeper, the Rangers’ moneyline at +135 is presenting some decent value thanks to the Atlanta bullpen.

Last night’s game closed as a pick‘em and this 45-point swing seems drastic when considering how good Eovaldi has been. +140 could be a price the market starts buying back on the home side. Strider was a -155 road favorite in his last start vs. Chris Bassitt whose numbers are nowhere near Eovaldi’s.

Braves vs Rangers Over/Under analysis

Globe Life Field (roof closed) doesn’t play as a great hitter’s park and Ballpark Pal ranks it as the 25th park in terms of run creation at -5%. It’s an average park for home runs but also limits extra bases as the No. 27 stadium in terms of doubles and triples. That’s a great setting for what could be a great pitcher’s duel tonight.

Strider has the ability to get out of any jam with his unworldly strikeout rates. He owns an insane 15.34 K/9.

The Texas lineup is still without Corey Seager and is trotting out Andy Garcia and Josh Jung in the middle of the order. It ranks as the No. 3 offense in wRC+ but is also sporting one of the highest BABIPs in baseball at .326. This lineup can squeeze a couple of runs off of Strider, but hanging crooked numbers is doubtful.

The Atlanta offense is one of the best in baseball but that’s certainly priced into the total of 7.5 which has moved 10 points to the Under since opening. Eovaldi has been cruising of late, going scoreless over his last 25 2/3 innings of work. In his 53+ innings this year, he’s allowed just eight walks and one home run.

This is a game between two of the best FIP pitchers in baseball right now, which is why we’re seeing the market get on the Under despite the smaller number at 7.5.

Despite the great pitching matchup, both bullpens are hard to trust and I’d much prefer taking the Under on the first-five total of 3.5 at EV or better.

Braves vs Rangers game info

Starting pitchers

Spencer Strider (4-1, 2.51 ERA): Strider is the current No. 2 betting favorite for the NL Cy Young (+225), is striking out an insane 43% of the batters he’s facing, and has a .169 batting average against. Strider’s numbers could actually be even better, which is scary, as his xERA is .11 points lower than his ERA. Atlanta is 7-1 SU in Strider’s eight starts, with the only loss coming in his last start vs. Toronto. THE BAT is projecting 17.2 outs, 8.38 strikeouts, and 2.27 earned runs.

Nathan Eovaldi (5-2, 2.70 ERA): Eovaldi is pitching well above his projected numbers this year and is allowing less than a hit per inning, striking out more than a batter per frame, and keeping the walks under control with eight over 53 innings. His FIP of 1.95 is one of the best in baseball and is aided by keeping the ball in the park with just one home run allowed on the season. He has gone at least 24 outs in three straight starts and hasn’t allowed a single run over that stretch. He’s averaging 109 pitches over his last three starts and THE BAT is projecting 17.9 outs, 5.99 Ks, and 2.98 earned runs.