MLB Notebook: Red Sox could take unorthodox approach to deadline

The recent hot streak by the Red Sox, winners of 22 of their last 34, has turned them into legitimate playoff contenders, and with it, the expectation they’ll be certified buyers by Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Indeed, the Sox are widely expected to add to their roster, with a specific focus on upgrading their pitching staff.

But in recent seasons and this year in particular, a new trend has emerged in the industry in which teams attempt to improve their chances for the current postseason, while simultaneously taking a bigger-picture view. The latter includes addressing more long-term concerns to achieve sustainability.

In layman’s terms, the Red Sox could try to walk and chew gum at the same time.

What would that like over the next few days? It could involve the Red Sox making some deals to bolster their rotation and bullpen, while attempting to sell-high on two important players: Alex Verdugo and James Paxton.

Verdugo is in the midst of a month-long offensive funk, which can’t do much for his present trade value. His dip has been significant enough that Alex Cora has seen fit to sit him on multiple occasions over the last week, during which the club has, tellingly, won four of its last five games.

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If need be, the Red Sox could get through the remainder of the season with an outfield of Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Adam Duvall with Rob Refsnyder serving as a more-than-capable fourth outfielder. Waiting in the wings for 2024 is Ceddanne Rafaela, who offers speed, athleticism and multi-position versatility.

Verdugo isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2024 season so an acquiring team would have him for two postseason runs. That extra year of control can only enhance his value on the market, to say nothing of the improvement Verdugo has made in the outfield.

There’s been an expectation that Verdugo has room to continue to grow as a player, and when he arrived in spring training in far better physical condition, intent on proving his worth, it seemed that might be an accurate characterization. But after a brilliant start, Verdugo’s play has regressed, leading to the realization that, at 27, this may be who he is: a solid player and at times superb defender, but lacking in power and consistency.

The Red Sox could themselves be having internal doubts about committing to Verdugo long-term. He’s proven to be a slightly above league-average player, but he’s also been frustratingly streaky. Then there are the mental lapses that, if not habitual, have been all too common. Is that the kind of player the Red Sox want to invest in long-term?

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Paxton presents a more complicated case, since he’s not nearly as redundant positionally as Verdugo. As it is, the Red Sox need additional starting pitching, and subtracting one of their two most reliable starters would seem counterintuitive.

But Chaim Bloom is driven by finding value where he can, sometimes at the expense of short-term goals. And with the paucity of quality starters on the market, coupled with the high return already established for Lucas Giolito - who has pitched nearly as well Paxton has this season - he might well be tempted to determine if someone might be willing to overpay for Paxton.

If Giolito can help the White Sox get a Top 100 prospect in return, the Red Sox might find themselves with the proverbial offer they can’t refuse. Even with their improved play and better playoff odds, the Sox remain a longshot to do much damage this October.

A case could be made that a rotation of Brayan Bello, plus soon-to-return starters Chris Sale, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock could do at least as well as the makeshift rotation has during the recent streak. And there would be the added benefit of a top prospect the organization could bank from a Paxton trade.

The deadline is no longer black-and-white. Teams don’t have to take an either-or approach.

“So many of the good things that have happened here have happened because we’ve been focused on the right things and focused on what we’re pushing towards,” Bloom said this week, “and focused on continuing to build and build and build so that we’re not just scrapping for the third wild card, so that we’re in a much better position than this annually.”

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In short, Bloom is suggesting that the unofficial motto at this time of year is: whatever it takes.

And if takes making what appears to be a temporary step backward in order to takes several steps forward in the near future, the Red Sox aren’t afraid to defy convention.

It’s impossible to know what the Red Sox will do by the deadline, or, how impactful those moves will be.

In recent years, across the industry, even the most celebrated deals have seldom influenced the playoff races as much as anticipated.

You never know. Seemingly minor acquisitions have a tendency to make big impacts. (And a good day to you, Dave Roberts).

As we await what happens this year, here are the most significant Red Sox deadline deals the Red Sox have made in recent history.

1)2004. Red Sox trade Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton in a complicated four-team deal that landed them Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz. Neither Cabrera nor Mientkiewicz were retained after 2004; they were strictly rentals. But it’s impossible to deny their impact on the final two months of the 2004 season and the subsequent postseason. Cabrera stabilized shortstop and produced some timely hits while Mientkiewicz gave the Sox are a stout defender at first and some veteran calm. In truth, too, there was some addition by subtraction in moving on from Garciaparra, who had become a sour presence and whose health, by then, had made him unreliable.

2) 1997. Red Sox trade Heathcliff Slocumb to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek. The Red Sox were in sell mode that season. On the morning of the deadline, they were 51-57 and in fourth place in the AL East, 16.5 games out of first place. This was a deal made for the future and former GM Dan Duquette hit an absolute homer with this one. It would take a little time, but both Varitek and Lowe would go on to become mainstays with the Red Sox, each big contributors to the 2004 championship. Varitek established all sort of records for a Red Sox catcher while Lowe had 81 saves from 2001-2003 before winning 52 games as a starter from 2002-2004. This isn’t just one of the best deadline deals in franchise history; it’s one of the best trades, period.

3) 2018. Red Sox trade Jalen Beeks to the Tampa Bay Rays for Nathan Eovaldi. The Red Sox were already in commanding position midway through the 2018 season, but needed starting pitching reinforcements. Eovaldi brought that and more. The Sox were just 5-6 in his 11 regular season starts - that was misleading as he pitched to a 3.33 ERA. And Eovaldi’s real contributions came in the postseason, highlighted by a historic six-inning relief appearance - albeit in a losing cause - in Game 3 of the World Series. Eovaldi then signed a four-year extension that winter, after which he won another 23 games and had a 3.84 FIP. Meanwhile, Beeks has been beset by injuries and underperformed for the Rays.

4) 1986. Red Sox trade Rey Quinones and three players to be named later (Mike Brown, John Christensen, Mike Trujillo) to the Seattle Mariners for Spike Owen and Dave Henderson. This was an August deal at a time when you could make trades after July 31 deadline, providing you got waivers on everyone involved, but it still qualifies as a deadline deal. Owen supplied the Sox with dependable defense in the middle of the infield, but Henderson was the real prize here. He stayed with the Red Sox for a little more than a year, but he was a force in the 1986 postseason (.324/.390/.677) and his ninth-inning two-run homer in Game 5 of the ALCS, followed by a go-ahead sacrifice fly in extra innings stands as some of the biggest moments in Red Sox October lore.

5) 2014. Red Sox trade Andrew Miller to Baltimore for Eduardo Rodriguez. Miller became a monster out of the bullpen in his many stops (Baltimore, Cleveland, New York), so this was hardly a one-sided swap. But the Red Sox were able to land a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter with six years of control. Rodriguez battled injuries and inconsistency during his time with the Sox, but he also averaged almost 11 wins per season and compiled a 4.16 in that span.

A look at what some other American League contenders could be looking for in the run-up to the deadline.

BALTIMORE: The Orioles are in need of an established front-of-the-rotation starter to augment their rotation, and they have as many prospects as any team in the game to enable them to get what they need. But by all indications, they don’t want to take on any sizable contracts - they have the second-lowest payroll in the game - and are reluctant to sacrifice prospects. They could also use bullpen depth, as their relievers are starting to show wear-and-tear.

TAMPA BAY: The Rays aren’t exactly in freefall, but after a torrid start, they’ve cooled considerably. They, too, could use a veteran starter for the rotation, but could also be in the market for a bat. They would have been the perfect landing spot for Shohei Ohtani and had the prospect base to get a deal done before the Angels pulled him off the market.

TORONTO: The bullpen appears thin and could use some reinforcements in front of closer Jordan Romano. George Springer has struggled mightily at the top of the lineup, so someone with on-base skills would be a nice fit here, too.

NEW YORK: We’ve seen how weak the Yankees’ offense has been without Aaron Judge, and they’ve been consistently linked to an outfielder with some thump, with the Cubs’ Cody Bellinger mentioned as one target.

MINNESOTA: Like the Yankees, the Twins need thump and would seem like a team that might have some interest in Adam Duvall, especially considering how lefthanded their lineup is.

CLEVELAND: It was somewhat odd that a team with a clear need for more offense acquired a pitcher (Noah Syndergaard) earlier this week. As always, the Indians are constrained by their payroll, but there should be an available bat that could help them.

TEXAS: Dating back to the postseason, the Rangers and their ownership have been all-in, and good for them. Earlier this season, with their bullpen springing leaks, they jumped the line to acquire Aroldis Chapman. The offense is the game’s highest-scoring, so they don’t need help there, but with Jacob deGrom gone for the year and Eovaldi’s velocity dipping, they could use a starter.

HOUSTON: The Astros have been hit hard by injuries to their pitching staff (Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia) and seek starters. And, like just about every contender in either league, they’d love to deepen their bullpen options.

EXTRA INNINGS:

1) Arte Moreno continues to demonstrate ownership malpractice. He stubbornly pulled Shohei Ohtani off the trade market, insisting that he owed it to, you know, “the fans,” who very likely will get to watch the two-way marvel for another 25 or so home games - none of which will be very meaningful in the big picture. Why not wait until Sunday night to determine that? The Angels could well be further out of contention by then. And even before he slammed the door on offers for Ohtani, he foolishly said he wouldn’t trade the pitcher to anyone who was in competition with the Angels for a playoff spot, thereby taking a half-dozen suitors off the table and failing to maximize what the star could fetch the team in return.

2) Somewhat quietly, the Kansas City Royals have been almost as bad as the Oakland A’s. Entering the weekend, the clubs were separated by exactly one game in the standings. The A’s have been held up for ridicule for their ineptitude, but in their own way, the Royals are worse, since they don’t have an uncertain ballpark situation or a hapless ownership group. And while the A’s play in a strong division with four teams at .500 or better, the Royals have no such excuses on which to fall back.

3) The San Diego Padres have been a crushing disappointment - that much seems inarguable. Other than the similarly-disappointing New York Mets, no team has experienced a bigger gap between money spent and wins realized. But give the Padres an ‘A’ when it comes to self-evaluation. They properly determined that the season is a lost cause and are listening to offers on Blake Snell, Josh Hader and Juan Soto. Given the expectations at the start of the year and ticket sales generated, that couldn’t have been the easiest decision. However, it’s surely the right one.