Twins vs Mariners Prediction, Picks, Odds
The Twins have shuffled the lineup a bit and have found new life with Carlos Correa in the leadoff spot. But our betting picks are targeting a teammate who could very easily take advantage of the shortstop's on-base resurgence.
The Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners have split the first two games of their current four-game set with a pair of high-scoring affairs. With Luis Castillo going for the -145 home side, books are hanging a total of 7.5 tonight in Seattle — but not all books.
Carlos Correa has breathed new life into this Minnesota offense since moving to the leadoff spot while Byron Buxton got a day off last night and will have more RBI opportunities tonight, which is giving plenty of value to his Over RBI market at great plus money.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Twins vs. Mariners on Wednesday, July 19.
Twins vs Mariners odds
Twins vs Mariners predictions
Carlos Correa has found a new home in the leadoff spot for the Minnesota lineup, where he is hitting .339 with 14 runs scored over 14 games. He was hitting .212 before the move to the top spot.
"I guess when you're hitting (in the) two, three (spot)," Correa told reporters about his resurgence, "I was just trying to go deep every at-bat. Now, I'm just trying to catch the ball with my barrel."
That’s giving more RBI opportunities to Byron Buxton who is coming in rested after a day off yesterday. Over those 14 games, the No.3 hitter has eight runs knocked in despite hitting just .163.
Luis Castillo is not an easy pitcher to stack runs off of but has allowed three or more runs in more than 50% of his starts since the beginning of May. The Tigers took him for three runs over his last start and the Twins offense has plated 36 runs over its last five games.
With Correa at the top of the order and Buxton coming in rested, the top of this Minnesota lineup should continue to get RBI opportunities against good pitching as it's one of the hottest offenses in baseball right now.
THE BAT is projecting 0.60 RBI while the +235 odds at bet365 are implying 0.46 making this 30% difference in implied vs. projected odds.
My best bet: Byron Buxton Over 0.5 RBI (+235 at bet365)
Twins vs Mariners same-game parlay
Byron Buxton Over 0.5 RBI (+235)
Carlos Correa Over 0.5 runs (+160)
Over 6.5 (-180)
I'm very surprised at the odds I'm getting here with the tight correlation between all three plays. The Buxton and Correa Overs can be cashed in the first inning and this could be a +600 winner with a 3-3- game.
Correa has been a different hitter at the top of this order and Buxton hitting third gives the leadoff man a chance to get into scoring position early. Taking the total at 6.5 helps that three-legger as I'm not getting greedy with a pair of two big plus-money plays.
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Twins vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Both clubs rested some starters yesterday as Julio Rodriguez and Buxton sat in the Twins' 10-3 victory as a +110 dog. Now with a disadvantage in starting pitching as Kenta Maeda faces Castillo, the visitors come in as a +125 road dog after opening as +135.
Maeda has been slightly better since returning from a tricep injury with a 2.70 ERA, but he has also faced some of the worst offenses in baseball in KC, Detroit, and Oakland in three of those four starts. That weak Oakland lineup chased the Minnesota starter after three innings in his last start.
Since the market already jumped on the Twins and took 10 points of value away, I’m staying off the side here but am intrigued about the Over 7 that is still available at a handful of books.
The Twins have been raking as an offense of late, scoring 36 runs over their last five games including 16 alone in this series. The Seattle bullpen burned three middle relievers yesterday and its high-leverage arms all pitched in back-to-back days on Sunday and Monday.
Castillo is also coming off a mediocre start as the Tigers took him for three runs and two homers over 91 pitches.
Minnesota has hit the Over in six straight games while the Mariners have gone Over in 13 of their last 21 games for a +25% ROI.
A Kenta Maeda start should never see a total of 7 — even vs. Castillo. Get this Over 7 at -125 or better if available.
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Trend to know
The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 94% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Mariners
Twins vs Mariners game info
Starting pitchers
Kenta Maeda (2-5, 5.50 ERA): Maeda will make his ninth start of the season, his fifth since returning from injury, and his second since the All-Star break. He has a 2.70 ERA over his last four starts since rejoining the rotation but has also faced the Tigers, A’s, Royals, and Braves. Oakland roughed him up in his last outing where he recorded just nine outs over 80 pitches and walked four batters. He has a 41/12 K:BB ratio over 36 innings with four home runs. He also owns an xERA of 3.85 and a sub-4.00 FIP. The Twins are 3-5 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 85 pitches, 15 outs, 5.37 strikeouts, and 2.71 earned runs.
Luis Castillo (6-7, 2.96 ERA): Castillo will be getting the ball for the 20th time this season and enters tonight with a 122/28 K:BB ratio over 112-plus innings with 17 home runs allowed. His 1.06 WHIP ranks sixth in baseball and would be a personal best if it finished there. He went 91 pitches and gave up three runs (two home runs) to the lowly Tigers in his first start following the ASB. His FIP is up year-on-year thanks to the extra HRs allowed and the Mariners are just 9-10 SU when he starts. THE BAT projects 102 pitches, 18.3 outs, 7.66 strikeouts, and 2.56 earned runs.
