MLB Picks for August 4: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

I technically went 0-2 on article plays yesterday, but I do want to take a quick moment to pat myself on the back. It takes a strong man to admit when he’s wrong, though when you’re wrong as often as I am, it does get easier with practice.

I’m not going to count this as a win, yet it’s a great reminder to be flexible with your wagers and to always be willing to adapt when new information presents itself. I know. Not all heroes wear capes.

Let’s dive into Friday’s full MLB slate.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have been among the better teams in baseball at covering the run line. In fact, at 52.8%, Boston’s doing so at the seventh-highest rate of any team in the league. That’s a decent clip, yet where the Red Sox really start to wow in 2023 is their specific dominance over the Blue Jays and the AL East as a whole. Boston is 7-0 against Toronto this season. The Red Sox are also 7-0 on the run line the last seven times they’ve been opposed by a divisional foe and 13-0 in their past 13 games as a home favorite versus another AL club. I’m not always a trends guy, but those are some pretty strong ones.

James Paxton will take the mound this evening for Boston. Healthy for the first time in years, Paxton has looked impressive across his 13 starts, posting a 3.19 xERA. Paxton’s been even better at Fenway, where a microscopic 2.25 ERA is backed up by an equally stirring 2.70 FIP. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays, despite having a lineup mostly comprised of RHBs, have struggled mightily with LHPs this season. The main issue? Hitting southpaws with authority. Toronto’s .266 average versus left-handers is actually the fifth-best mark in MLB, yet the team’s .128 ISO within the split is the lowest in the American League.

Then there’s Alek Manoah...

Among the 122 pitchers who have thrown at least 70 innings in 2023, Manoah’s 14.6% walk rate is the second-highest. The former first-round pick finished third in AL Cy Young voting a season ago, but Manoah now looks completely lost on the mound, unsure where any of his pitches are going. Manoah’s walked at least three opponents in 11 of his 17 starts. He’s been particularly wild in opposite-hand matchups, with opposing LHBs combining for a robust 15.8% walk rate. That’s a troubling split heading into a tilt with the Red Sox, as Boston will likely have five left-handed batters in their lineup on Friday — six if Reese McGuire sneaks in at catcher.

Houston Astros at New York Yankees

This season has been an absolute nightmare for Luis Severino, who comes into Friday’s contest with Houston in possession of a 7.49 ERA and a 6.48 xERA. If you had to pinpoint a single issue that’s plagued the RHP in 2023, it would without a doubt be his handedness splits. To wit, Severino has faced 139 left-handed opponents and those men have combined to slash a jaw-dropping .360/.420/.648 with a .449 wOBA. For some context, Barry Bonds’ career wOBA was .435. This problem has been especially bad in Severino’s last five outings, where LHBs are hitting .492 with a .902 slugging percentage. I’m frankly not even sure how that level of ineptitude is possible at the MLB level.

Kyle Tucker is left-handed. Kyle Tucker is also on fire since the All-Star break. Following a home run in Thursday’s narrow loss in the Bronx, Tucker sports a 1.133 OPS and a 202 wRC+ in his 84 plate appearances after the Midsummer Classic. I have a pretty strong inclination that either he or Yordan Alvarez is in for a massive performance this evening. Maybe both.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.