Fantasy Baseball Picks: Rangers vs. Diamondbacks DraftKings MLB DFS Showdown Strategy for November 1

Well, we’ve reached that point of the season. The night where every baseball game could be the last baseball game of the year. After a commanding 11-7 victory in Game 4, the Texas Rangers now hold a 3-1 series advantage against the upstart Arizona Diamondbacks, with the veteran Nathan Eovaldi ($11,400) taking the ball in what could be a World Series clinching start.

Will he get it done? Or will we be back in Texas on Friday? Let’s break it all down.

SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Nathan Eovaldi ($17,100 CP) - Eovaldi struggled in Game 1, surrendering five earned runs across 4.2 innings. In fact, it was the first time this postseason that the RHP didn’t register a quality start. That speaks to how effective Eovaldi’s been the last month. The veteran has tossed 30.2 innings in the playoffs, sporting a 3.52 ERA and a 2.77 FIP. The 33-year-old has also seen his strikeout rate skyrocket to a very noticeable 28.6%, and though he pitched poorly against Arizona last week, he did manage eight strikeouts. On a Showdown slate where both team’s aces are taking the hill, I want at least one in my lineups. Eovaldi is cheaper than Zac Gallen ($11,600), he’s had much better recent numbers than Gallen and, crucially, he’s got the easier matchup and the longer leash. Eovaldi will likely be one the most rostered assets in Game 5, and I’m in total agreement with the public.

Corey Seager ($14,700 CP) - With another home run in Game 4, Seager is closing in on World Series MVP honors. The veteran shortstop could cement his case with another strong showing on Wednesday. Seager has been virtually unstoppable so far in the playoffs, slashing .306/.442/.694 with a 200 wRC+ in his 77 plate appearances. It’s all been a carry-over of the success Seager had throughout the regular season, when the 29-year-old managed a .413 expected wOBA that trailed only Ronald Acuna Jr. and Shohei Ohtani among qualified bats. Seager also has far and away the most experience against the aforementioned Gallen, thanks to his time in the NL West. Seager was 0-for-1 with a pair of walks versus the RHP in Game 1 and, in his 22 career at-bats prior to the postseason, the former first-round pick is hitting .318 with a .400 OBP off Gallen. Considering how much the Diamondbacks’ ace has faltered the past few weeks — Gallen owns a 6.33 FIP in his last five outings — I have very little issue trusting Seager to produce in an opposite-hand matchup.

FLEX Plays

Evan Carter ($8,400) - Carter has cooled off a little bit in the past couple days, yet for the postseason as a whole, the rookie is still slashing an impressive .309/.433/.509 with a 162 wRC+ in 67 plate appearances. For tonight’s purposes, he’s also another left-handed bat to throw up against Gallen. While the right-hander’s home run issues weren’t nearly as bad during the regular season, Gallen did surrender 1.26 long balls per nine to opposing LHBs, compared to just 0.65 home runs per nine to RHBs — the seventh-lowest qualified mark in baseball.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($6,200) - Gurriel appears to be locked into the six-spot in the Diamondbacks’ lineup, and while the veteran outfielder hasn’t been amazing so far in the postseason, he is a cost-effective middle-of-the-order bat with some upside. Gurriel hit his third home run of the playoffs in Game 4 and he knocked out a career-high 24 long balls during the regular season in his first year in Arizona. He’s also had some success in the past matching up with Eovaldi, with a pair of homers off the RHP back in his days with the Blue Jays.

Jose Leclerc ($4,000) - Let me make this pretty simple. If you think the Rangers are going to win tonight — Leclerc is viable. While the fact that the RHP has worked the last two days might be seen as a detriment, I tend to see the situation differently. Texas is overly reliant on Leclerc. The 29-year-old was turned to in an 11-5 game on Tuesday. He pitched two innings in Game 1. Heck, he threw the final inning in Game 7 of the ALCS with the Rangers leading 11-3. Bruce Bochy has showed his hand time and time again. Leclerc is his guy and, with a 31.2% career strikeout rate, he doesn’t need long to make a DFS impact.

Fades

Corbin Carroll ($9,000) - Carroll’s been underwhelming since the beginning of the NLCS, hitting just .222 (10-for-45) without a single home run in that 11-game span. He also doesn’t have a single stolen base attempt in the World Series, which is a massive part of how he usually derives his value in fantasy. It’s been a disappointing showing from the man likely to take home NL Rookie of the Year. As it pertains specifically to tonight’s tilt, Carroll draws an exceedingly tough matchup with Eovaldi. It’s not just that the RHP has been incredible so far in the playoffs, it’s that few pitchers negated left-handed bats better than Eovaldi during the regular season. To wit, among pitchers to throw at least 60 innings against LHBs in 2023, Eovaldi’s .254 wOBA within the split was the third-lowest mark.

THE OUTCOME

Zac Gallen just doesn’t look right at the moment. He’s surrendered almost two home runs per nine during the postseason, while a depressed 15.3% strikeout rate sticks out like a sore thumb. Gallen survived Game 1, but with four walks in five innings, things could have been a whole lot worse. Even without the services of Adolis Garcia (oblique), I think the Rangers put up some crooked numbers. That’ll be enough for Nathan Eovaldi to add to his already impressive playoff resume.

Final Score: Texas 6, Arizona 2

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.