MLB Picks for July 3: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
It’s a light schedule Monday night, with only eight games taking place starting at 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at some bets I like tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Well, Luke Weaver is on the mound, so we have to take a look at the team total for the opposing team. It’s been a really, REALLY bad year for Weaver through 13 starts. He currently owns a 6.96 ERA with a 5.31xERA and a 5.42 FIP. His strikeout numbers are down, his fly ball rate is way up (over 10% from last season) and his groundball rate is down over 6%. Weaver has allowed at least four runs in nine of the 13 starts he’s made, including four his his five starts in June. To say he’s getting completely obliterated in his starts would be an understatement.
To be fair, the Nationals offense is much better against lefties than righties. When facing righties, they have only a .307 wOBA with a 90 wRC+. But, I’m ok with taking them tonight because Weaver has truly been that bad. Over the last five games, the Nats are averaging 4.6 runs per game against the Phillies and Nationals. With Weaver’s prop for earned runs allowed set at 2.5 and the over getting -155, I think the Nationals get to him tonight and once again put a hurt on Weaver’s game log.
Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants
The Giants continue to be a great team to target against for strikeout props. They have one of the highest K% against righties at 23.5%, which ranks them 7th. Tonight, they’ll face Mariners rookie Bryan Woo, who’ll be making his sixth start. Aside from his debut against the Rangers, he’s been great in his next four starts against the Angels, White Sox, Yankees and Nationals. He’s logged at least five strikeouts in all of those games, including a current career-high of 9 against the White Sox. Woo has a very impressive 12.7 K/9 and a 13% swing-and-miss rate through 22.2 innings. I like him to go over 5.5 strikeouts tonight against a projected starting lineup with six players that have at least a 21% K% against righties.
Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians
The Braves have been on quite a run line streak lately. Wrapping up the month of June hitting .307 as a team, they’ve covered the run line in six straight games, winning them by an average of 5.3 runs. Tonight, they start Bryce Elder, who has the opportunity to become the current MLB ERA leader, overtaking Cubs starter Justin Steele. Elder has a 2.44 ERA with a 3.76 xERA and a 3.79 FIP through 16 starts and 96 innings. Facing an offensively challenged Guardians team feels like a strong spot to back the Braves on the run line.
The Guardians, to their credit, have been hitting better lately but it also should be noted about the quality of their opponents. The Royals, whom the Guardians score 19 runs against, have the team 5.20 ERA and 4.53 FIP. The Cubs started Jameson Taillon last night, who has been their worst starter this year. I’m confident the Braves will be able to win this game by at least two runs.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
