MLB Picks for July 7: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

We’re three days from the MLB All-Star break and two months away from the start of the NFL regular season. The NBA Draft and most of free agency has passed. These are the dog day, folks. As such, you have to sometimes do quirky things — gimmicks, if you will — to keep yourself entertained. That’s why today’s bets will all be strikeout props. I just woke up and felt like that should be a thing.

We’re 39-29 (+11.8u) on article plays so far this season. Let’s try and go into the break on a heater.

Atlanta Braves at Tampa Bay Rays

This one’s a little nerve-wracking. While it’s technically true that Glasnow has failed to go over this prop in four of his last six starts, the two outings he has cleared it have been the last two times he’s taken the bump. In those contests against Kansas City and Seattle, respectively, Glasnow combined to strikeout 23 opponents in just 10.2 innings of work. There’s no doubt he has the raw stuff to put up some wild swing and miss numbers on any given night.

Still, the Braves aren’t the Royals or the Mariners. In fact, they’re almost the polar opposite. While both of those franchises rank top five in strikeout rate across the past 30 days, Atlanta owns the league’s lowest strikeout rate within that span at 17.9%. The Braves also lead MLB in almost every single important offensive category in that same 30-day stretch, registering eye-popping marks in ISO (.278), wOBA (.401) and wRC+ (151). It’s not fun pitching against this lineup at the moment. Most pitchers don’t last very long — even ones as good as Glasnow.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks

Gallen is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Full stop. The right-hander has managed a 2.83 FIP across 111.1 innings of work in 2023, which is just a tick better than his very respectable 3.15 ERA. Gallen is also a strikeout pitcher. For his career, Gallen’s posted a 27.2% strikeout rate, and though his 26.8% mark this season is down slightly, a career-best 13.0% swinging strike rate suggests that the 27-year-old is more deceptive that ever before. Just ask the Angels, as Gallen racked up 12 strikeouts in Los Angeles in his most recent outing.

With all that said, the Pirates are an interesting matchup for Gallen. In what was easily his worst start of 2023, Gallen surrendered eight runs (five earned) in only 3.2 innings versus Pittsburgh back on May 19. However, I think most rational people understand that that was nothing more than a blip on the radar. The Pirates are not an above-average team when it comes to run scoring potential, and they’re even worse when it comes to strikeouts. Across the last two weeks, Pittsburgh possesses the league’s fourth-highest strikeout rate (25.7%).

Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers

The only risk here is pitch limitations. Faedo is making his first start since May 30, and he threw just 57 pitches in his rehab start in Triple-A on Sunday. Still, he’s gone over this prop in each of his last four appearances at the MLB level. He’s also struck out 26 opponents in his 26.0 innings with the Tigers in 2023. The former first-round pick definitely has the ability to miss bats.

The Jays are a pretty decent matchup, too. Toronto’s 25.5% strikeout rate across the past two weeks is the fifth-highest mark in baseball, with lineup staples like Brandon Belt (41.0%), Matt Chapman (36.0%) and Daulton Varsho (31.6%) all possessing personal strikeout rates well above 30% within that span of time. It’s unlikely Faedo will be able to go more than five innings, but that should be all he needs to reach this modest number.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.