MLB Picks Today: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for August 29

I know it’s Coors Field, but I feel the need to point out that the total for tonight’s Braves-Rockies game is 12.5 on the DraftKings Sportsbook. It’s just wild to see a number like that, no matter how justified it might be. It’s also worth noting that I’ve set the number at 1.5 for the number of fans that attack Ronald Acuna Jr. tonight in Colorado. Call me up if you want some of that action.

Let’s dive into this massive MLB slate.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals

You’d be excused if you haven’t be paying all that much attention to the exploits of the Royals the past couple months, but let me assure you, Ragans is worthy of your gaze. Since being traded from the Rangers, the left-hander has been dazzling on the mound, posting a 2.08 ERA and a 1.80 FIP across his starts. More importantly, at least for the purposes of this bet, Ragans has paired that sterling run prevention with a 33.3% strikeout rate. In fact, he’s managed at least eight strikeouts in four of his last five games. Such is the life of a man with a 100 mph fastball and a 13.7% swinging strike rate.

At this point, matchup might not even matter all that much for Ragans, but he does draw an above-average one on Tuesday evening in the form of the Pirates. Pittsburgh has struggled to a pedestrian 91 wRC+ so far in August, while the team’s 24.6% strikeout rate is a top ten mark in baseball within that same span. If Ragans can at least work into the sixth inning, I doubt he has much trouble clearing this prop.

Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins

It’s rare to get the Rays as an underdog this season. In fact, it’s happened just 21 times prior to tonight, with Tampa sitting an underwhelming 8-13 in those “unfavorable” spots. Still, even though the team technically hasn’t had that much success in this scenario, I’m inclined to believe they’ll win this evening in Miami. The Rays are hot at the moment, having won six of their last seven contests and eight of their last 10. They’ll also be sending one of their top pitching options to the mound, with Aaron Civale set to make his fifth start for Tampa since being traded at the deadline.

Civale hasn’t skipped a beat with his new team, posting a 2.39 FIP and a 10.00 K/BB ratio in his first 20.1 innings with the Rays. Combine that with his stellar numbers from Cleveland, and Civale has produced a 2.59 ERA that is the second-lowest mark among the 113 pitchers who have thrown at least 90.0 innings in 2023. The lone man better? Clayton Kershaw.

As for Civale’s counterpart on the bump, it’s simply been an uneven campaign for Sandy Alcantara. To wit, while the reigning NL Cy Young winner’s ERA has been much improved since the All-Star break, Alcantara’s FIP has ballooned thanks to surrendering 1.59 long balls per nine. He’s just never looked quite right the past five months. Why assume he’ll suddenly regain his 2022 form tonight?

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.