MLB predictions: Why the underperforming Padres should get hot soon

The Padres have been MLB’s most underwhelming team.

But I think they’re about to get stupid hot. 

San Diego was always due for positive regression.

It had a sub-.200 average with runners in scoring position (RISP) through mid-June, a wildly unsustainable number (it would’ve been the lowest RISP mark in history).

But the RISP luck has finally flipped, with the Padres scoring the second-most runs (115) with RISP since June 15. 

The Padres are due for more positive regression.

They’re 5-16 in one-run games and 0-9 in extra-inning games, and that close-game luck should flip in the second half, resulting in extra wins. 

But the Padres weren’t just unlucky in the first half, they were also struggling with consistency.

Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado slumped through the first half, and the Padres got nothing from the catcher position (Austin Nola). 

However, Machado has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball in July (1.267 OPS), and Bogaerts’ 15-day rolling wOBA has jumped 120 points since the beginning of June. 

With those two back on track, San Diego’s “core four” hitters all have above-average numbers — Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. are still crushing the baseball. 

Meanwhile, replacing Nola with Gary Sanchez has paid dividends, while Trent Grisham and Ha-Seong Kim have been top-35 hitters over the past month (by wRC+).

The Padres have the best collection of top-end talent in the league, and they have productive depth hitters. It’s simply taken 90 games to put it all together. 

They already had one of the league’s better rotations, ranking third in starting pitcher ERA this year. However, Blake Snell’s resurgence has raised the ceiling of this staff significantly. 

Since June 1, Snell has made nine starts and leads all starting pitchers in ERA (0.51), strikeout rate (41.9 percent), OPS allowed (.436) and expected wOBA allowed (.217).

The Padres have found a bona fide ace, and the 1-2-3 punch of Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove is one of baseball’s best starting pitching combinations.

It’s also worth noting that Musgrove ranks second in OPS (.574) and expected wOBA allowed (.234) among starting pitchers since June 1, only behind Snell. 

This rotation is legit. The Padres have an elite closer in Josh Hader, but I will admit they’re a tad weak in the bullpen. 

However, GM A.J. Preller is one of the league’s most aggressive executives.

The Padres may be four games under .500, but they will be buyers at the deadline, and I expect them to add legit middle-relief arms to shore up that weakness (perhaps Kendall Graveman or Kenyan Middleton from the White Sox).

The Padres are only going to add more talent, not subtract it.

So, the point of this ramble is: Now is the time to buy stock in the Padres. I’m betting on the Padres in two ways. 

First, I’ll lay some coin with them to make the playoffs.

Betting on Baseball?

You can get as high as +400 for that bet.

The 4/1 odds imply a 20 percent probability the Padres clinch a postseason berth.

But FanGraphs projects them with a 30 percent shot, and Baseball Prospectus projects them with a 51 percent chance.

There’s huge value in that market. 

Second, I’ll bet on the Padres more day-to-day, as they’ll be undervalued in the game markets.

San Diego travels to Detroit this week, so look to grab them cheap on the ML. 

If you’re looking for a team to back over the final two months of the season, it’s the Padres.