MLB Rookie of the Year odds, picks: Paul Skenes, Junior Caminero

The be-all-end-all of handicapping baseball’s Rookie of the Year awards is attempting to project a player’s likelihood of spending the majority of the season on the big league roster, trying to evaluate reasons why or not they could end up an everyday player. 

Is he blocked out by established big leaguers? Is an organization situated to manipulate service time? How would a team tolerate a player qualifying for Super Two?

After that, you have to consider how a player would accumulate WAR in that expected playing time.

Per Action Network’s Sean Zerillo, 18 of the past 24 Rookie of the Year winners (excluding the pandemic season) have finished atop their respective league in WAR in the year they won the award.

Keep in mind that you can always circle back on rookies you are high on but do not believe will start the season in the majors at better prices down the road.

American League Rookie of the Year odds

The AL rookie race could be one of the more interesting battles in recent memory.

Outfielder Evan Carter (+280, Bet365) is the odds-on favorite at every sportsbook. He still qualifies as a rookie despite playing 40 combined regular-season and playoff games for the Rangers in 2023.

Las season, Carter had an OPS of 1.058 in 75 regular-season plate appearances (PAs) and a .917 OPS in 72 regular-season PAs. He is the safest bet for playing time and a worthy favorite.

Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday (+400) is my favorite current price on the board.

Yes, his path to consistent playing time is a little convoluted for a price this short. However, baseball’s top prospect is projected to lead AL rookies in WAR per plate appearance. This spring, he has looked more competent defensively than expected while slugging .607.

It continues to seem more likely that Holliday will make Baltimore’s opening day roster. The Orioles would surely hate to rush their most important prospect, but they are also in win-now mode.

It seems likely, too, that Holliday is the team’s best candidate at second base right now, while he could obviously get steady usage at his natural position of shortstop as well.

And, if he is on the opening day roster, the Orioles can net an additional pick on the MLB’s Prospect Promotion Incentive if he finishes top three in the ROY race.

You could probably get a more accurate assessment by waiting, but I feel confident enough that prices like +400 are going to continue trending downward as we get closer to Opening Pay, so it’s probably time to lock him in now.

Texas’ Wyatt Langford is appropriately priced at +600 and I don’t quite see betting value at that number. 

Langford has mashed across 200 minor-league appearances (10 homers, .360/.480/.677) and has slugged .808 across 32 PAs this spring.

He has progressed at an absurd rate since being drafted fourth overall in 2023 but would need to be an outlier to come in and succeed at the big league level this year.

The Rangers will be returning all three pieces of their World Series-winning outfield, and his natural role for the time being is at DH. That would hurt his ability to generate WAR, even if he does come in and hit big league pitching effectively.

Corey Seager’s status for opening day remains uncertain, which is another factor that could benefit Langford’s projected usage.

Junior Caminero is priced as long as +1600, which is appealing given his upside at third base and at the plate. It sounds unlikely he will crack Tampa Bay’s opening day roster though.

PICK: Wait for Junior Caminero (+1600) call-up

National League Rookie of the Year odds

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+150) is one of the bigger favorites in recent history to take home ROY honors in either league.

The Dodgers didn’t pay $325 million to not feature the 25-year-old Japanese pitcher in their starting rotation. He projects to generate 4.3 WAR and is even the fourth betting favorite for the NL Cy Young.

Yamamoto has pitched to an ERA of 9.00 in two spring appearances for the Dodgers. That likely means nothing, but I would certainly continue to monitor his form ahead of the season.

You could even see how a couple of regular-season starts go; unless he is completely dominant, these prices aren’t likely to get much shorter very quickly.

If Yamamoto is to struggle, that would really open up this race and would allow more confidence to back long shots down the board.

The Giants seem to be trending in the right direction as a team, which could help projected leadoff man Jung Hoo Lee (+700) generate counting stats.

After signing a six-year, $113 million contract after hitting .340/.407/.491 during his KBO career, Lee is essentially a lock to be San Francisco’s everyday center fielder, which is a huge plus in this race. He has an OPS of 1.008 over a small sample of 21 PAs this spring. At +700 odds, he is worth betting.

Milwaukee’s Jackson Chourio (+1000) is the lone non-import priced among the NL favorites, but I’m not sold on his upside relative to the proven professionals he is competing against, all who have guaranteed roles.

Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes (40/1, FanDuel) and Arizona’s Jordan Lawlar (40/1, FanDuel) are players to monitor ahead of opening day.

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Skenes continues to progress quickly, and he has the arm talent to garner lofty projections at the MLB level this season, but he is unlikely to make the starting rotation out of camp.

Lawlar also has the potential to outperform Geraldo Perdomo in 2024, but that process should take some time.

PICKS: Paul Skenes (40/1, FanDuel), Jordan Lawlar (40/1) to win NL Rookie of the Year