2024 MLB odds, predictions: Fade rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an overwhelming favorite to win the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year award, but he might not be the best baseball bet to make.

Yamamoto is currently sitting at +180 at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the award, which are odds unmatched in recent history for an award that can be a bit of a crapshoot.

The 2023 preseason favorites – Corbin Carroll (+375) and Gunnar Henderson (+250) – had their way, but you don’t have to look far to see how random this award can be.

In the 2021-22 season, the NL Rookie of the Year winners didn’t even have preseason odds at most major sportsbooks after Jonathan India and Michael Harris won it, respectively, as massive dark horses.

The award has largely gone to position players in recent history. Only four of the past 20 winners (AL and NL) have been pitchers, one of them being two-way star Shohei Ohtani.

Yamamoto very well could reverse that trend, but at these odds the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.

Instead, I’ve got my eyes on a position player with a divisional rival and a younger pitcher who may be the only hurler on the oddsboard who can match Yamamoto on a talent level.

Giants center fielder Jung Hoo Lee (+900, Caesars Sportsbook) is the second-favorite at most sportsbooks, and his odds are much more favorable for those looking for a big payout.

Lee signed a six-year, $113 million with San Francisco this offseason after hitting .340/.407/.491 during his KBO career.

Baseball fans know not to get too excited about spring training numbers, but he’s on fire through 13 at-bats, slashing .462/.533/.769 with a home run and a stolen base.

Lee is expected to slot in as the Giants’ everyday leadoff hitter, which will help him put up the gaudy counting stats associated with many ROY winners.

I’m also throwing a unit or two on Pirates star prospect Paul Skenes (+4000, FanDuel).

Skenes, who has looked at home in the big leagues this spring, is expected to start the season in Triple-A or these odds would be much shorter.

The 2023 No. 1 overall pick tossed a scoreless inning against the Orioles during his spring debut, hitting 102 on the radar gun.

Earlier this week, Skenes struck out three over two innings against the Rays, although he gave up a solo home run to Amed Rosario.

It’ll be tough for the Pirates to keep Skenes, who was already seen as an advanced pitching prospect out of the draft, in the minors, should he dominate in Indianapolis.

If he can garner an early call-up, Skenes will be right in the thick of the NL Rookie of the Year race.

Don’t be seduced by the hype surrounding Yamamoto.

Take the value in players like Lee and Skenes.

BETS: Jung Ho Lee to win NL ROY (+900, Caesars); Long shot: Paul Skenes (+4000, FanDuel)