MLB teams controlling their own playoff destinies in 2023

For most teams, playoff races involve a lot of scoreboard-watching. This has been especially true since the implementation of the second and third Wild Cards, which, in addition to injecting even more chaos into the final weeks of each season, have tended to inspire some unusual allegiances -- because if the Red Sox need the Yankees to win to pick up a game in the standings, usually, the city of Boston will make an exception.

But a few teams on the postseason bubble -- the Red Sox among them -- won't be relying too heavily on things they can't control in 2023. Those teams will, in effect, control their own destinies by virtue of their schedules. Here are five clubs who will see a lot of their direct competition down the stretch and how that might impact their Deadline plans.

*Records as of the end of play July 24; games back reflect league Wild Card standings.

Red Sox, 53-47, 2.5 GB
25 games (7 vs. BAL, 7 vs. HOU, 5 vs. TB, 6 vs. TOR)
For months now, it's looked like the AL East could send four teams to the postseason, but up until recently, the Red Sox were the obvious odd man out. But their 12-5 record in July has them looking more like potential buyers, especially as the Yankees look less and less like legitimate contenders.

Because their greatest challengers are within their own division, whether the Red Sox contend through September is going to be almost entirely up to them. They've fared especially well against the Blue Jays (7-0), who hover just two games above them. They'll also see the Yankees, with whom they were tied as of Tuesday, another seven times, having gone 5-1 against them in their first six meetings of 2023. Simplifying things, for Boston -- it's less a matter of what they can add and more what they may not subtract -- primarily Adam Duvall (.257/.320/.515, 119 OPS+) and James Paxton (3.46 ERA, 1.00 WHIP).

Mariners, 50-50, 5.5 GB
19 games (3 vs. BAL, 3 vs. BOS, 6 vs. HOU, 3 vs. LAA, 4 vs. TB)
Like the Red Sox, the Mariners are chasing multiple division rivals and will have a chance to directly knock at least one -- in their case, the Angels, who still haven't ruled out a possible earth-shattering Shohei Ohtani trade -- clear out of the race. Furthering the case for them to stick things out is the way their 2022 season unfolded. Last year, the Mariners played .500 ball through early July. We're past that point in 2023, but it's not unthinkable that with another key addition -- this time to their anemic offense, likely in the form of a middle infielder or a corner outfielder in the wake of Jarred Kelenic's injury -- they could mount another comeback in the second half.

Guardians, 49-51, 6.5 GB
24 games (4 vs. BAL, 3 vs. HOU, 4 vs. LAA, 6 vs. TB, 7 vs. TOR)
The state of the AL Central makes Cleveland an odd fit for this list. The Guardians are considerably more likely to win their division than they are to be one of the AL's three Wild Cards, and they have six more games to play against the first-place Twins. While that didn't seem to be enough to stop them from moving Shane Bieber, now that he's sidelined indefinitely with an elbow injury, the Guardians don't have much else in the way of desirable trade candidates. What they do have is a lineup that could really use a power bat, preferably one who could man center field. No one's saying Cody Bellinger is headed to the Guardians, but they have the Minor League talent to make a move like that happen, assuming they're at all willing to part with it.

Padres, 48-53, 6.0 GB
27 games (7 vs. AZ, 7 vs. LAD, 3 vs. MIA, 3 vs. PHI, 7 vs. SF)
The Padres came into the season as the favorites to win their division, so there's a chance they could be more hesitant to officially declare 2023 a bust when it comes down to it, although they are reportedly taking calls on Blake Snell and Josh Hader.

Plenty of time has been dedicated to hardcore analysis of the Padres' inexplicably average offense, but at the end of the day, there are several clubs with poorly constructed lineups and the Padres aren't really among them. They also have one of baseball's best rotations (their 3.47 collective ERA ranks second in MLB), which is more than several playoff-bound teams can say. Point being, they have enough to make it work, and they'll have more of an opportunity than just about any club in the race, given their 21 upcoming games against the D-backs, Dodgers and Giants.

Mets, 46-53, 7.0 GB
20 games (4 vs. AZ, 3 vs. CIN, 6 vs. MIA, 7 vs. PHI)
Of all the clubs on this list, the Mets are the most likely to cut their losses. Their roster skews significantly older than most. At minimum, recent rumors have Mark Canha and David Robertson on their way out. If they go, it doesn't make too much sense for them to keep Justin Verlander. Tommy Pham could make for an appealing alternative to the teams that lose out on Bellinger, and there are almost certainly others the Mets will receive calls on in the next week.

All that said, there's an argument for reinforcing this flawed roster -- or, at minimum, leaving it be -- for one final push. The teams that fare best in October are often the hottest, not the best. The Mets will close out the season with 20 straight games against four of the teams directly in front of them, assuming the playoff picture doesn't change wildly between now and early September. Even better, they have a combined 13-6 record against the D-backs, Marlins, Phillies and Reds in 2023. They'd just have to tread water until then.