Monday Horse Racing Betting Tips, Prediction, Odds: Fairyhouse, Plumpton, Fakenham
Monday Horse Racing Betting Tips
14:05 Fairyhouse
2m Farmhouse Foods Novice Handicap Hurdle (4yo+)
Metamorpheus – 0.5pt Each Way – 10/1 (Bet365)
singleSelection
I backed Metamorpheus in the Fred Winter/Boodles at Cheltenham and he ran a cracker to finish 6 at a big price. He was bang there jumping the last but he made a mistake there and weakened out of it. Between the error at the last, the trip being just over 2m, the soft ground and the Cheltenham hill, he has plenty of reasons for weakening out of it at the finish.
I think today’s test might be more to his liking – Slightly better ground, 2m around Fairyhouse and he also receives an 8lb weight-for-age allowance here which makes a huge difference. As long as the Cheltenham run hasn’t taken too much out of him, I think he can run a big race here and is a lovely price at 10/1.
horseRacingOdds
14:58 Plumpton Tips
2m1f (2m214y) Howden Insurance Handicap Chase (Class 3) (5yo+ 0-125)
Stepney Causeway – 0.5pt Each Way – 8/1 (Bet365)
singleSelection
I watched Stepney Causeway last time out as I thought he was slipping to a very nice mark and he ran a solid enough second. He didn’t set the world alight but it was nice to see some kind of return to form.
He was rated 138 at his peak with Skelton, he raced off 125 last time out and he has now dropped to 123. He drops into a 0-125 for the first time and I would be very disappointed if he could not put in a big performance in this company. He was a massive price and pulled up but this horse was running in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last season!
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15:15 Fairyhouse Tips
2m5½f (2m5f155y) Fairyhouse Steel Handicap Hurdle (4yo+ 0-140)
Zoffany Bay – 0.5pt Each Way – 16/1 (6 places)
singleSelection
This horse had 700 days off the track but ran a cracker over 2m3f at Ascot to chase home Irish Hill. As can happen sometimes, he flopped on his second run after a long break in the Imperial Cup and I’m willing to forgive that.
He is now 1lb below the mark of his second at Ascot and I think he could bounce back to form here. I’m surprised to see him as big as 18/1 and I think he could be very competitive off his current mark.
horseRacingOdds
16:08 Plumpton Tips
2m3½f (2m3f164y) BetGoodwin Sussex Champion Chase Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (5yo+ 0-145)
Lord Baddesley – 1pt Win – 7/2 (William Hill)
singleSelection
I have always loved Lord Baddesley and he has done well for us. I think they set their sights a bit high last time out in the Greatwood Gold Cup and he struggled in that company. I think he is far better suited by this race.
He has also run three times at Plumpton and has run a cracker all three times. In the first run he was travelling strongly into the race but clipped heels and fell 4 out. He then returned to the track with a 9.5 length victory in a handicap hurdle. Then finally, two runs back, he won a Novice Chase here by 4.5 lengths in a lovely fashion. With the two wins, he achieved RPRs of 131 and 134, so his current mark of 131 looks workable to me.
With a drop in class, a return to Plumpton and Good ground, I think it’ll take a good one to stop him landing this nice pot.
horseRacingOdds
16:17 Fakenham Tips
3m (3m38y) Aldiss Furnishing Stores Veterans' Handicap Chase (For David Keith Memorial Cup) (Leg 6 Vets Series) (Class 2) (10yo+ 0-150)
Fidux – 1pt Win – 11/4 (Bet365 & Paddy Power)
singleSelection
I was very sweet on Fidux last time out but he bumped into Boldmere who won nicely.
Boldmere went up 6lb for that and ran a cracker next time out to finish second to Cyclop. He has subsequently gone up another 3lb for that and Cyclop went up 4lb for the win too.
Fidux’s mark was left unaltered after his run behind Boldmere and he has not been seen since. So, with a 9lb swing in the weights, I’d like to think he could have a great chance of reversing the form with Boldmere. With that one closely linked to Cyclop, I’d like to think he could have the beating of that one also.
I think it also worth bearing in mind that Boldmere and Cyclop had a tough race that day, they are 10-year-olds and it was only 16 days ago…
Hopefully Fidux can have his day in the sun today!
horseRacingOdds
17:00 Fairyhouse Tips
3m5f BoyleSports Irish Grand National Chase (Extended Handicap Chase) (Grade A) (5yo+)
Champagne Platinum – 0.5pt Each Way – 25/1 (Bet365, 6 places)
singleSelection
The big race today is the Irish Grand National and I have come down on Champagne Platinum.
I put this horse up last time out in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown and he ran a place for us at a similarly big price.
He was 8 in the Irish Grand National last year, beaten less than 10 lengths and he is now 3lb lower.
He was going okay 3 out last time and then looked a little one paced at the business end, so I think the extra furlong and the slightly juicer ground could well be in his favour.
It’s an ultra-competitive race, as you would expect but I think Champagne Platinum is once again being underestimated and has a great each way chance at a huge price of 25/1.
