Friday Horse Racing Betting Tips, Prediction, Odds: Catterick, Ascot, Chepstow

Friday Horse racing Betting Tips

12:40 Catterick

Torneo – 1pt Win – 15/8 (Bet365)

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My first selection today comes in the 12:40 Catterick and it Torneo for Jamie Snowden. 

 This horse is out of a Teolfilo sister to Group winner Al Wathna. This horse has looked tough and consistent on the flat in France. He has never finished out of the first three and won over 1m2f at Pau. He has earnt a handicap rating of 84. With the way he has been running over 1m4f, he looks the perfect type for these juvenile hurdles and Jamie Snowden thinks she can make a high-class juvenile hurdler. 

 There is some serious debate around how much to add to a flat rating to get the horses jumps ability, I have seen everything from 30lb to 50lb but the consensus tends to be around 35-40lb. If you add 35lb-40lb to the flat rating of 84, that takes you to 119-124. 

There does not appear to be anything of that quality in that race with the other three making the Top 4 in the betting rated 115, 108 and 93. The 115 rated Union Flag also has to concede a 7lb penalty, so in theory if running to rating, you’d only have to exceed 108 to beat that one. 

 This looks a winnable race that has been found for Torneo and Jamie Snowden has an exceptional record at Catterick with 13 wins from 27 runners (48%). As long as his jumping holds out, he should take some beating here.  

12:50 Ascot 

Monviel – 1pt Win – 5/4 (General) 

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My second selection is Monviel, who has switched from Philip Hobbs to the inform Harry Derham. 

 This horse ran to a very solid level last season with RPRs of 127, 130 and 130 resulting in a win and two fifth place finishes. 

 On his first run for Harry Derham last month, he was second to JPR One. He received a RPR of 138 for that performance which is impressive enough but it only looks even better now with how well JPR One ran at Cheltenham before falling. Despite falling, he was raised 11lb because he was clearly going to be a wide margin winner. 

 Off a mark of 128 here, Monviel looks to have an outstanding chance of continuing Harry Dereham’s fine form. 

 In terms of the opposition, Sammarrive never looked a chaser last season but connections are persisting. Until he shows more, I’m happy to take him on. I think Supreme Gift will want further than this trip, so happy to take him on. That just leave The Carpenter, who was progressive last season and could give us a serious race if ready to run to his best but it’s first run of the season and he might just need it.  

 All things considered, I think Monviel looks rock solid here and should win.  

13:05 Chepstow

Mr Grey Sky – 1pt Win – 11/4 (General) 

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 He won nicely at Huntingdon earlier this month which surprised me slightly as I thought the ground may not be Soft enough with it only being Good to Soft.  

 New Found Fame was disputing second when he fell two out and may have given Mr Grey Sky more to think about at the finish and he reopposes here. 

 However, I don’t feel a 5lb race for My Grey Sky is bad at all, especially considering I think he is a better horse on Soft ground. With him now getting that ground today, I think he could defy the 5lb rise and win again. 

 He does have to carry 12st here but I think he is better than 0-120 company and should be able to shoulder the burden.  

14:00 Ascot 

Zhiguli – 0.5pt Each Way – 16/1 (SkyBet, 4 places) 

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The next selection comes in the 14:00 Ascot which looks a cracking Handicap Chase over 2m5f. 

 This was won last year by Your Darling who comes back for another crack at it. His mark looks workable again and he has an excellent record fresh, so he looks the right favourite. However, whilst I’d be happy to back him, I think 9/4 is just a fair price rather than a value one. 

 Fire Dancer, Copperhead and Flegmatik are all horses I have backed before but none can seem to run consistently. Like Copperhead for example, he was rated 155 and with Freddie’s claim, he runs off 115 today. This is quite frankly mental and he should win but many have said that for the last few runs and yet he just does not seem to get it done. 

 However, I think I have found a value bet in this race and it is the Gary Moore trained Zhiguli. He came here for this race off 133 last year but it all went wrong for him and he pulled up. He ran a couple of respectable races in defeat before winning at Sandown in March. Despite, that he comes back here off 6lb lower than when competing in the race last year. 

 He got achieved a RPR of 135 when winning at Sandown and has achieved 137 in the past, so a mark of 127 looks very workable for him today. 

 He made his seasonal reappearance here at the beginning of the month running into 4th off 1lb higher. He was hampered 5 out and also shaped like needing that run. If improving for the run and the drop back down to an intermediate trip, I think he is massively overpriced here and could run a massive race. My only slight concern is that he might want Soft/Heavy rather than Good to Soft and hence why I have played half stakes.

15:10 Ascot 

Tea Clipper – 2pt Win – 11/4 (General) 

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My next selection is Tea Clipper and I put him up the other day at Cheltenham but he was withdrawn due to the ground coming off soft. 

 He was campaigned in very tough handicap chases throughout the 2022/23 season but often ran with credit in defeat. 

 His best run last season was his second run of the season here at Ascot in the £100,000 London Gold Cup where he finished 3rd, beaten just 2.5 lengths after being sent off the 5/1 favourite. That run came off a mark of 145 and he ran to a RPR of 147. 

 His mark dropped to 138 for this season and he ran at Chepstow last month, which is where he usually starts his campaigns. He ran a cracker really to finish 2nd on ground that would have been plenty soft enough for him (at his best on soft).  

 Today he is running off 2lb lower (136) and this is over 3m1f. Given his previous form and his reappearance, I think he has an exceptional chance in this Class 3 0-140 handicap. Whilst he does have to carry 11st 13llb, he had to carry 11st 11lb in the London Gold Cup, which was much tougher and did it well. This is certainly the weakest handicap chase that he has contested to date.  

 He was 6th in the Ultima off 9lb higher than today’s mark and it is safe to say that worked out well with Corach Rambler winning the Grand National and Fastorslow winning the Grade 1 Punchestown Gold Cup.  

 All things considered, I think he could well be too classy for this field and can shoulder this big weight to at least finish in the places but he really should be winning this.

15:45 Ascot

Elogio – 1pt Each Way – 7/1 (SkyBet, 4 places) 

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My final selection is Elogio, he has must have been frustrating for connections with a string of seconds to his name.  

 However, he ran a lovely race at Worcester to finish second, achieving a RPR of 113. He then took on tough company at Cheltenham but ran with credit to finish 6th, beaten just 10 lengths when staying on well at the finish to hit the line hard. 

 That run screamed out that he wanted a step up in trip and he gets that today. As mentioned, he has ran to a RPR of 113, so he should at least be capable of running to his mark of 112 but with further improvement expected for a step up in trip, I feel he can run to a much higher mark. 

 If he could run to say 120+, that should be enough to take this race and I think is capable of this. Whilst many of these will not go beyond this 0-115 company, I think this is a stepping stone to better things for him, especially considering he is only a 4-year-old.  

 I’d be disappointed if he could not finish in the places at least here.