and three other big-priced tips after a 16-1 winner

With the start of the Cheltenham Festival just four days away, I am pleased to say that this column’s antepost book for the meeting is looking decidedly healthy. It can all go badly wrong, of course, over the space of four days but, for now at least, let’s live in hope.

Over the past couple of months, I have put up 12 Festival bets and, particularly for the first two days, most of those horses are now being offered at significantly shorter odds by all bookmakers. With more rain falling than was expected this week – and with more to come – this will inevitably suit some horses that I have tipped better than others. However, that’s the ups – and downs – of betting several weeks in advance.

Nassalam, put up each way at 20-1 NRNB and now vying for favouritism in the Ultima Handicap Chase on day one, will welcome every drop of rain that falls between now and Tuesday. So too will Mister Coffey, put up each way at 25-1 and now less than half those odds for the Wellchild National Hunt Challenge Cup Chase on the same day.

My tip for the Unibet Champion Hurdle on day one, I Like To Move It each way at 20-1, is not ground dependent but the reality is that nothing is likely to beat the favourite, Constitution Hill, if he is on song and enjoys a clear round.

However, my duo of bets for day two, Camprond in the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle and Saint Segal in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase, both also much shorter in the betting than when tipped, would prefer the rain to stay away. The same applies to French Dynamite in the Ryanair Chase on day three, while my only other bet for this day – Elixir du Nutz at 20-1 NRNB for the Magners Plate Handicap Chase – may run in the Grand Annual on Wednesday instead.

The best news of all, however, is that anyone who has followed my tips for the past three months is now betting with the bookmakers’ money and not their own. All the more so after Benson won the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso on Saturday, some 24 hours after being tipped here at 16-1. That gives this column a profit of exactly 41 points to date.

Of the 12 bets put up for the Festival, there is just one non-runner so far – Party Business in the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle because he is did not qualify for the race. However, as the horse was put up Non Runner No Bet (NRNB), there will be no damage to anyone’s bank balance.

I am going to make just one final addition to the Cheltenham antepost portfolio today to make it a ‘baker’s dozen’ of tips for the meeting in all. This is a wager for the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle on day one, a race that the shrewd Irish trainer Paul Nolan likes to target.

Nolan has just one runner in the race, METAMORPHEUS, who will be having only his second outing for the yard. His first run was in a hot little novice hurdle at Navan last month won by Sir Allen, who is due to oppose him again on Tuesday.

Metamorpheus was only fifth of the six runners that day but I am sure there is more to come. The four-year-old gelding will certainly not be daunted by the big field or the possible soft ground since he won a 21-runner maiden hurdle at Punchestown in January on heavy ground for his former handler, Timothy Doyle. Take the 16-1 each way NRNB with one of the many bookies offering both this price and five places. I am also putting up a bet for tomorrow in the big race at Sandown: the Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (2.25 p.m.). With 18 runners, there are extra places on offer with most bookies, notably SkyBet which is offering no less than seven places.

The recommendation is an each way play on MONVIEL, a course and distance winner who was slightly disappointing last time out when only fifth at Newbury in the Betfair Hurdle. However, he started slowly that day on ground far too fast for him. He is better being ridden more prominently and with ‘soft’ in the going description, which he will get tomorrow. Back Philip Hobbs’s six-year-old grey gelding each way at 17/2 with William Hill, offering a fifth odds for six places.

Looking further ahead, I can’t resist a pair of bets in the Boulton Group Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter in eight days’ time. The first is THE GALLOPING BEAR trained by Ben Clarke. I have long had a soft spot for this tough gelding and, even at ten years old, he still seems to be improving. A marathon trip on likely soft ground is just what he needs so take the 14-1 each way, four places, with bet365.

At much bigger prices, I would suggest also backing NOTACHANCE in the same race. If Alan King’s nine-year-old gelding runs like he did last time out at Haydock, he will live up to his name and he might as well stay at home.

However, he is much better than he showed that day and there was plenty to like about his previous run at Warwick when he was a close third to Iwilldoit on heavy ground. Back Notachance each way at 33-1, five places, with Paddy Power or Betfair fixed odds.

The Lineker row isn’t about free speech – it’s a moral coup

Anyway, that’s it for now, but I’ll be back in the coming week with updates from Cheltenham. In the meantime, good luck to one and all – and, regardless of the results, savour what is always my favourite sporting spectacle of the year.

Pending bets:

1 point each way Monviel at 17/2 for the Imperial Cup, paying 1/5 odds, six places.

1 point each way Nassalam at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chases, paying 1/5 odds, five places.

1 point each way I Like To Move It at 20-1 for the Unibet Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, three places.

1 point each way Metamorpheus at 16-1 for the Boodles Juveniles Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places.

1 point each way Mister Coffey at 25-1 for the National Hunt Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places.

1 point each way Camprond at 20-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, paying 1/5 odds, five places.

1 point each way Saint Segal at 20-1 for the Grand Annual, paying 1/5 odds, five places.

1 point each way French Dynamite at 14-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places.

1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 NRNB for the Plate Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, five places.

1 point each way Gin Coco at 14-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places.

1 point each way Hewick at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places.

1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places.

1 point each way Might I at 10-1 NRNB for the Martin Pipe Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places.

1 point each way The Galloping Bear at 14-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places.

1 point each way Notachance at 33-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.

1 point each way Corach Rambler at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places.

1 point each way Lifetime Ambition at 33-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.

1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.

Settled:

1 point each way Hill Sixteen in the Becher Chase at 11-1, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (7th). – 2 points.

2 points win Annsam at 8-1 for the Howden Silver Cup. Cancelled meeting. Stake returned.

1 point each way Eldorado Allen at 20-1 in the King George VI Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced (4th).  – 2 points.

1 point each way The Big Breakaway in 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National at 20-1, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 2nd. + 3 points.

1 point each way The Big Dog at 12-1 in the Welsh Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places. 3rd. + 2 points.

1 point each way Grumpy Charley at 12-1 in the Newbury 2.25 p.m. paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st + 16.4 points.

2 points win Midnight River at 5-1 for the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m., with Skybet. 1st. + 10 points.

1 point each way Coconut Splash at 12-1 in the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m. on Sunday, with William Hill, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (P). – 2 points.

1 point each way Sir Ivan at 20-1 in the Sandown 3 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Lord du Mesnil at 8-1 in the Warwick 3 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Dubrovnik Harry at 8-1 in the Kempton 2.40 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Mister Coffey at 15/2 for the Doncaster 3.15 p.m., 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.

1 point each way Back On The Lash at 7/1 for the Cheltenham 12.40 p.m., 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 8.4 points

1 point each way Empire Steel at 12-1 in the Sandown 3.30 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each Small Present at 25-1 for the Grand National Trial (Haydock 2.40 p.m.) paying 1/4 odds, four places. Unplaced – 2 points.

1 point each way Homme Public at 9-1 for Ascot 3 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Party Business at 20-1 NRNB for the Pertemps Network Hurdle Final, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.

1 point each way Benson at 16-1 in the Morebattle Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 19.2 points.

2022-3 jumps season, running total + 41 points.