NASCAR best bets at Kansas: Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott get odd odds

If you want to get a headstart and sneak a look down there at the odds board for Kansas, feel free. In fact, please do, and a couple things should get your attention.

The couple of things: Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott. 

Kyle is in a familiar spot — atop the odds chart — in spite of things (he’s been finding trouble with alarming regularity lately).

Chase is behind six other drivers, also in spite of things (he’s CHASE ELLIOTT!). 

Chase’s fall from grace with the gambling public shouldn’t be so surprising, given his pedestrian efforts since returning from injury, but still, it felt proper to give him a stand-alone spot on the board just to highlight the overdue comeuppance.

Chase has finished 10th, 12th and 11th since his return, and only led laps (18 of them) at Talladega, where even Harrison Burton and Ryan Preece led laps. He’s one of six drivers between +1200 and +1800 at Kansas, and frankly, maybe he should be lower.

Larson, on the other hand, remains a strong favorite and, yes, he’s capable of dominating on any intermediate track, such as the 1½-miler at Kansas. But goodness what a run of buzzard’s luck he’s having — finishes of 32nd or worse in three of the past four weeks due to crashes.

Granted, in the midst of that rough month, he won at Martinsville, and just prior to it, he won at Richmond. So which way to lean?

Here at the weekly betting window, there’s a big need for some Windex. Larson is obviously a smart pick — he’s won six of 22 starts on this type of track since 2020. You might even call it a safe pick, despite the recent issues.

But you don’t make up for a string of losses by playing it safe and smart. Remember, it’s called gambling. If you don’t have the stomach for losses (including pride), take your money to the grocery store or some other frivolous outlet.

We’re searching for a winner upon whom to plunk down (nearly) all of our allotted $100 this week.

Kyle Larson +500, Tyler Reddick +750, William Byron +750, Denny Hamlin +800, Christopher Bell +850, Martin Truex +850

Still not sure why Billy the Kid keeps getting so much love from the plunkers. Hamlin is very due and has a good intermediate-track record. Truex might’ve ignited a roll with his win last week. Gonna be tough to ignore this group.

Chase Elliott +1,200

Still can’t believe he finally lost the devotion of a chunk of his rooters.

Ross The Boss Chastain +1,200, Kyle Busch +1,400, Bubba Wallace +1,400, Ryan Blaney +1,500, Kevin Harvick +1,800

More temptations here. Bubba won Kansas last fall, and Blaney keeps sniffing around for a long-awaited win.

Joey Logano +2,200,, Brad Keselowski +2,800, Ty Gibbs +3,500, Daniel Suarez +3,500, Josh Berry +6,000, The Other Chase, Briscoe +6,500

Spoiler alert: I think we’re coming back to visit this group shortly.

The Other Ryan, Preece +10,000, Aric (With an A) Almirola +10,000, Erik (With a K) Jones +10,000, Ricky Stenhouse +10,000, Chris Buescher +10,000, Austin Dillon +10,000, Another Austin, Cindric +10,000.

I believe we’ve discovered why Erik Jones and teammate Noah Gragson have struggled so badly this year. Their team — Legacy Motor Club — announced this week it’s moving from Chevy to Toyota next year. Assuming the Chevy folks saw this coming, and surely they did, you think the team is high on the priority list?

AJ Allmendinger +15,000, Justin Haley +15,000

Justin is what the old-timers would call “a good little racer,” but man, it’d be nice to see him start overachieving a wee bit. 

All at +20,000: Josh Bilicki, JJ Yeley, Noah Gragson, Corey LaJoie, Ty Dillon, Todd Gilliland, Brennan Poole Harrison Burton, Michael McDowell

Head on a swivel, because the bouncer — BJ McLeod — is missing from the Longshot Lounge this week. He’s handed over the keys to Josh Bilicki, another driver from a long line of Wisconsin racers. 

Far as we know, Josh is the fastest man from Menomonee Falls, which is also the longtime hometown of Bob Uecker, who, like Josh, won't be in the front row.

Last week

Never really had a chance. Not after Kyle Larson got Chastained and Kevin Harvick never led a lap. So I picked the favorite, a mid-level favorite and the usual token bet on Ty Gibbs, and in the end it was Gibbs who had the best shot, only to badly miscalculate fuel mileage.

Speaking of gas money, let’s go get some in a big way …

This week

That’s right, no more hedging until we get this thing pointed north again. Yes, yes, I’m sticking with the weekly $10 on Ty Gibbs because it’s coming, folks. It’s coming.

But all the rest — all $90 of it — will ride shotgun in the No. 22 Ford with Joey Logano, who’s had it so rough lately he’s sitting behind a dozen others on the odds board.

Doesn’t seem right, does it? Unfortunately, it might be right, but this is why we’re here.

Over the past three-plus seasons on intermediate tracks, Joey has four wins, including a win at Kansas. By my math, $90 on Joey at +2,200 would return just under $2k, which would erase all the losses and build a decent little nest egg heading into what’s bound to be the Summer of Winning, right?