NASCAR Odds: Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick favored on Bristol dirt

That was the familiar refrain from an old coach and PE teacher whenever someone injured anything. He used it regardless of the severity, from a jammed pinky finger to an open head wound.

Pretty sure he even would’ve used that line on Wile E. Coyote after the anvil fell on his head.

Well, a few years back, looking to inject something unique to the schedule in general, and Bristol Motor Speedway in particular, the track’s owners, along with NASCAR’s blessing — you guessed it — rubbed a little dirt on it.

So far, Year 1 brought a dust bowl while Year 2 was a mud run. 

OK, Goldilocks, let’s see if Year 3 is just right. 

Here at the betting window, we’re still missing any hint of momentum. Three weeks ago there was a modest win at Atlanta — a sawbuck on Joey Logano netted me a whopping $20.

Next came a shutout at COTA, followed by a “win” last week at Richmond that made the Logano cash-in look like a gusher — 10 bucks on Kyle Larson was good for $65, which, by my lying math, is a $35 net loss on our overall wagering allowance of $100.

Let’s get down and dirty this week, and along the way we’re gonna uncover a dark-horse as well as a ringer.

And they’re both the same guy!

Kyle Larson +550, Tyler Reddick +600, Christopher Bell +650, William Byron +1,000, Joey Logano +1,000, The Other Chase, Briscoe +1,000

The group of favorites includes most (most) of the Cup drivers with lots of dirt-racin’ roots. Also here is Bristol’s first dirt winner (Logano) and the guy who should’ve won last year (Reddick).

Kyle Busch +1,200, Ryan Blaney +1,500, Ross The Boss Chastain +1,500, Denny Hamlin +1,800, Ricky Stenhouse +2,000

Kinda high-rent company, you might think, for Ricky. But he’s one of others with a background on dirt. Also, Busch inherited last year’s Bristol win, and surely Bossman did some mud-running out in the melon fields, right?

Martin Truex Jr. +2,500, Daniel Suarez +2,500, Alex Bowman +2,500, Chris Buescher +3,000, Brad Keselowski +3,000

Let’s just say my Excitement RPMs aren’t threatening the rev limiter.

Kevin Harvick +4,000, Josh Berry +4,000, Austin Dillon +5,000, Jonathan Davenport +6,000

Well, well, looky here. It’s our ringer/sleeper hybrid, Mr. Davenport. No, you don’t have to call him mister, mister. You can always use his dirt-racing label: Superman. Yep, Superman. That’s how good he is on dirt. Spire Racing has hired him to roll into Bristol and run both the Saturday truck race (good tune-up) and Sunday’s big show. 

Ty Dillon +8,000, Ryan Preece +8,000, Michael McDowell +8,000, Justin Haley +8,000, Ty Gibbs +8,000, Anthony James Allmendinger +10,000

We dabbled in some Ty Gibbs last week because I keep thinking it’s just a matter of time before he finds the groove. After running ninth at Atlanta (pseudo plate-race) and Austin (road course), he ran ninth at Richmond last week. That’s one trend, but simply regaining some form is another.

Erik (With a K) Jones +15,000, Austin Cindric +15,000, Todd Gilliland +20,000, Noah Gragson +20,000, Harrison Burton +20,000, Aric (With an A) Almirola +20,000

No temptations here, but I hear one coming from over yonder, where the Longshot Lounge is absolutely on fire tonight …

JJ Yeley +100,000, Corey LaJoie +100,000, Cody Ware +100,000, BJ McLeod +100,000

Fresh off making another big splash at the Newport Jazz Fest, Duke Ellington, with Ivie Anderson out front, is raising the roof in the Longshot Lounge, where JJ Yeley is staring into his sarsaparilla and pondering some Denny Hamlin payback.

Last week

I put $40 on Logano and he practically went into witness-protection. It might've been the quietest seventh-place of his career.

The other $60 was split six ways, with six names drawn from the officially licensed cap. Thankfully, Larson was among the plucked, but at +650, my $10 was only good for $65. But it mitigated the losses, and these days, that's a win.

This week

Yes, I'm definitely taking a flyer on Jonathan Davenport. Tempting to simply go $10 on him, since it would pay $600. But daddy doesn't just need to regain lost funds, he wants a cushion heading deep into spring, so let's go $20 on Superman and hope for a $1,200 payday.

Next up, let's dip into the favorites, with $20 each on Reddick and Bell, while acknowledging how Kyle Larson might likely ruin things.

That leaves $40, and half of it rides with Suarez, $10 on Harvick and that last $10 sticking with Gibbs.