NASCAR Odds, Richmond: Kyle Larson vs. Denny Hamlin; Chase Elliott?
Don’t accuse the number crunchers at DraftKings of being unable to read a room.
It’s certainly not a random draw that has them offering Denny Hamlin versus Kyle Larson as one of this week’s prop bets at Richmond.
This is also one of those weekends where timing meets location. It was at Richmond, back in the spring, when Denny reminded us that JJ Yeley is still out there turning laps on Sundays. He could’ve chosen a better manner, but decided instead to bulldoze JJ out of the way and then damn near won the race.
A late issue in the pits — back when that is what Denny was known for — ruined the No. 11’s occasionally dominant day. Guess who won? Yep, Kyle Larson, the same Kyle Larson who was escorted out of the racing lane last week at Pocono — by You Know Who, of course.
So along with all the usual betting lines, DraftKings’ prop lineup of driver-vs-driver matchups includes Larson-Hamlin, because why not?
Unfortunately, there’s not much return for what’s essentially a coin flip, though it’s mildly interesting that Kyle is slightly favored — he’s at -120 compared to Denny’s -110. If this week’s prop-bet allotment — $50 — goes with Kyle, it’d bring $41.66 in net return, while Denny would deliver $45.45.
There are too many other juicy opportunities out there this week, but first, let’s decide where the $50-to-win will be plunked down this week …
Oh yeah, remember Martin Truex?
Martin Truex Jr. +450; Kyle Larson +500; Denny Hamlin +650
Truex continues to haul the mail, but my goodness, these are all pretty low numbers among the three faves. Seriously, +450 is something you’d expect to see on Kyle Busch in a Truck Series race.
Speaking of Kyle Busch …
Kevin Harvick +750; Christopher Bell +750; Kyle Busch +850; William Byron +900; Joey Logano +1,200
Since sweeping Richmond’s two races in 2018, Kyle has finished better than sixth just once in eight starts there. Meanwhile, Bell has finished sixth or better in five of his six Richmond starts.
“Chase Elliott. Paging Chase Elliott …”
Ross Chastain +1,600; Chase Elliott +1,600; Ryan Blaney +2,200; Tyler Reddick +2,800; Ty Gibbs +2,800
Found him! Yet again, No. 9 is ninth on the list of favorites this week. Even the longest of honeymoons come to an end.
Hmmmm
Brad Keselowski +3,000; Alex Bowman +4,500; Bubba Wallace +5,500; Michael McDowell +30,000; Austin Cindric +30,000; Noah Gragson +100,000
Bubba understandably struggled at Richmond while driving for the Petty team, but then he moved to the better-equipped No. 23 car and … uh-oh, he still doesn’t finish well at Richmond. In 10 Richmond starts, he’s led a total of one lap. One! But that one lap came this past spring. Momentum!
Last week: The Chase Elliott hunch again ate my lunch
At one point, my pick to win (Chase Elliott) and my prop bet for a top-five finish (Kez) were both situated well into the top 10 and offering hope. If nothing else this year, I’ve learned to not spend my winnings until the checkers.
This week
I truly think the winner will come from that lead threesome on the odds board, but where’s the fun in that? Let’s go a little deeper on the pylon.
No, not that deep, Cousteau. We’re stopping at William Byron. Billy the Kid is at +900 and would bring $450 on our $50 throw-down. Good luck, Billy, we’re all counting on you.
For the prop, let’s go with Reddick, since he’s finished sixth and second the past two weeks, finally shaking off a serious two-month funk.
But do we gamble on a top five (it would pay $175) or a top three ($350)? It’s easy to say “what the hell” from the angle of a few days out.
But you know, sometimes … sometimes you just gotta …
Oh, what the hell, let’s put the $50 prop bet on Reddick to make the podium.
