2023 NASCAR at Bristol odds, predictions, start time: Proven model has surprising Food City Dirt Race picks

Kyle Larson heads to the 2023 Food City Dirt Race as a past winner at Bristol and is coming off a win at Richmond last week. Larson also performed well on this track in 2022, so it is no surprise that he is the 9-2 favorite in the 2023 Food City Dirt Race odds at Caesars Sportsbook. However, he has gone 0 of 2 in his two tries at the Bristol Dirt Race, despite leading 27 laps last year. There are several 2023 Bristol Dirt Race contenders right on his heels, including Tyler Reddick (6-1) and Christopher Bell (6-1).

Reddick was the runner-up at this track last year, making him one of the popular 2023 Bristol Dirt Race picks. Bell has five top-6s in the first seven weeks of the season, but should you be backing him with your 2023 Food City Dirt Race bets? Before scouring the 2023 Bristol Dirt Race starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Bristol predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Bristol Dirt Race picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), and Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1). Then it called Tyler Reddick one of its best values two weeks ago when he won in Austin for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping nine winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Top 2023 Bristol Dirt Race predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Daniel Suarez, even though he's a 20-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Bristol odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Suarez finished fourth at this race in 2021 after leading 58 laps, giving Trackhouse Racing its first top-five finish in the NASCAR Cup Series.

He led another 64 laps last season on the Bristol Dirt, so he is comfortable racing here. He has struggled over his last few races this season, but this track seems like an ideal opportunity for him to get back into a rhythm. Suarez told reporters that he "plans to win the race and have a heck of a party afterwards," and SportsLine's model likes his chances to make that a reality. See who else to back at SportsLine.

And a massive shocker: Christopher Bell, one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, stumbles big time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 Food City Dirt Race starting lineup. The 28-year-old is coming off a season where he became a household name, winning three times on his way to finishing third in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series standings.

Bell is third in the 2023 NASCAR standing as well after four top-five finishes in his first seven starts. However, he's also had two finishes outside the top 30 and he's actually backed up in both of his Bristol Dirt Race starts. He started 15th and finished 34th after a crash in 2021 and then started second and finished seventh last season. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 NASCAR at Bristol picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 Bristol NASCAR odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

2023 Food City Dirt Race odds, lineup

Kyle Larson 9-2Tyler Reddick 6-1Christopher Bell 6-1Chase Briscoe 9-1Kyle Busch 10-1William Byron 12-1Joey Logano 12-1Ryan Blaney 14-1Denny Hamlin 15-1Alex Bowman 20-1Ross Chastain 20-1Martin Truex Jr. 20-1Daniel Suarez 20-1Brad Keselowski 25-1Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 25-1Kevin Harvick 30-1Christ Buescher 35-1Ty Gibbs 50-1Bubba Wallace 50-1Austin Dillon 50-1Josh Berry 50-1Jonathan Davenport 60-1Ryan Preece 60-1Michael McDowell 65-1Justin Haley 75-1Todd Gilliland 75-1Ty Dillon 75-1A.J. Allmendinger 100-1Erik Jones 150-1Austin Cindric 150-1Aric Almirola 200-1Noah Gragson 250-1Harrison Burton 300-1Corey Lajoie 500-1JJ Yeley 2000-1BJ McLeod 5000-1