NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over Til It's Under (Friday, Nov. 24)

NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.

Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic Under 224 (-140 on Fanatics)

This one should have a tough, playoff-like feel. Should see a lot of half-court offense and methodical play on both ends.

These teams are top three in defensive rating and top five in points allowed. They’re also bottom half in pace. Boston is 6th in offensive rating, but that’s drastically skewed toward their success at home. The Celtics have an incredible 126.7 offensive rating at home, but just a 111.8 mark on the road. Basically, the best offense in the league vs. bottom 10 unit.

Orlando is at a 111.9 offensive rating on the season. They’ve struggled to shoot the ball, ranking 23rd in field goal percentage and 28th in 3-point percentage. The Boston defense has held opponents to the 3rd-worst FG% and 6th-worst 3-point rate. Orlando is top 10 in points in the paint per game, but the Celtics have allowed the 6th-fewest points in the paint.

Would expect a high-level defensive battle here.

Domantas Sabonis Under 37.5 PRA (-105 on DraftKings)

Sabonis picked up where he left off last season, and he’s actually getting to the free-throw line a bit more. But this is just a brutal spot, especially with De’Aaron Fox healthy.

Minnesota continues to lead the league in defensive rating. They’re technically 3rd behind New York and Houston in points allowed, but they’re all at 105.8 PPG. The Timberwolves are especially tough on big men. They’ve allowed the 3rd-fewest points, 2nd-fewest rebounds, and 6th-fewest assists to centers.

Sabonis has seen a dip in his playmaking when Fox is in the lineup. His usage falls 1.59% and his assist rate drops by more than 14%. He scores a bit more, largely because he’s shot better from 3-point range with Fox on the floor. There could be something to that (more open opportunities), but I’m willing to roll the dice on a 32.7% career 3-point shooter. If that’s how he gets there tonight, I’ll tip my cap.

Season Record

• Game Picks: 3-1
• Prop Picks: 3-1

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• Charlie Wright is part of the Marketing team at RotoGrinders. He also contributes content for MLB, NBA and NFL.

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