NBA Finals odds, expert picks for Nuggets vs. Heat Game 5: Denver looks to wrap up first-ever NBA title

Only once in NBA history has a team overcome a 3-1 series deficit in the NBA Finals. You remember LeBron James and the Cavaliers. Now, the Miami Heat will attempt to erase a 3-1 deficit, starting with a win in Game 5 Monday night in Denver. The Nuggets, again, are huge favorites and our experts pick Denver to win the title at Ball Arena.

On the precipice of an unassailable case for the greatest season the league has seen, the Golden State Warriors conceded three straight wins to Cleveland — including a Game 7 at Oracle Arena— as the Cavaliers won the franchise’s only championship in 2016.

The other 35 teams to have ever faced a 3-1 deficit in this round lost.

Those are the odds the Heat are up against after dropping two games in Miami to fall behind 3-1 to the (jugger-)Nuggets. One more win would give Denver its first NBA title — and a well-earned one.

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Nuggets vs. Heat

8:30 p.m. ET Monday on ABC

What are the odds for the Nuggets vs. Heat?

Series: Nuggets lead 3-1

Series odds: Nuggets -5000, Heat +1800

Nikola Jokić is on pace to become the first player in NBA history to lead a postseason in total points, rebounds and assists. Jamal Murray has dropped double-digit dimes in each of the first four games of the Finals. In lulls — like when Jokić fell into foul trouble in the second half of Game 4 — key contributions from the likes of Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown and the rest of the Nuggets’ deep stable of role players have bridged the gap.

All of which is to say this Nuggets team is one win away from glory for a reason.

Miami faces an uphill battle in Game 5, for which 8.5 points favor Denver. Although the Heat did steal Game 2 at Ball Arena, the Nuggets’ renowned homecourt advantage — 9-1 with a plus-10.4 point differential this postseason — factors into that, as does the talent gap between these sides from top to bottom.

Should the Nuggets close this one out, don’t waste time searching for Finals MVP longshots. That will be Jokić, averaging 30.8 points, 13.5 rebounds and 8 assists per game in the Finals. Jokić and Murray are the engine for everything Denver does offensively.

But if Miami can dig deep to pull out Game 5, the Heat would be just one home Game 6 away from knocking on the doorstep of history. It would be their greatest trick yet in a playoff run full of them.