NBA First Basket Odds, Props & Picks: Bet Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry in Heat vs. Thunder (December 14)

NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

NBA First Basket Odds, Props & Picks: Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Miami Heat on Wednesday night. Alexsej Pokusevski (29% opening-tip win rate) will likely be jumping at center against Bam Adebayo (62% win rate). These two centers have not faced off against each other on an opening-tip before.

I’ve written quite a bit about Oklahoma City in recent weeks, as they continue to struggle on tip-offs and have only scored first 37% of the time this season. I played against them on Monday with Luka Doncic and Dwight Powell, but Powell, painfully, missed an alley-oop to start the game.

Still, the logic of betting against the Thunder is sound. Miami has scored first just 39% of the time this season. This is primarily due to low success rate on first field goal attempts (shooting just 43% on first shots this season). Jimmy Butler (injury management) has already been announced as out for this game. Max Strus will likely start in his place.

Adebayo has taken the first shot in 11 games for the Heat this season and has made the first team field goal in 10 games. Kyle Lowry has taken the first shot in six games for the Heat and made the first team field goal four times.

OKC has given up the first opposing field goal this season to the center, power forward or shooting guard positions in 74% of its games. The Thunder defend the small forward position well on opening possessions as the opposing small forward has scored first in just 7% of games this season.

It’s difficult to not like Adebayo tonight given the stats supporting him. Caleb Martin is hard to back as he has only taken the first shot twice this season.  Tyler Herro’s odds are too low for a player who has not cashed a first basket ticket all season. I’m pairing Bam with Lowry and hoping the Heat (unlike the Mavs) can execute on their first possession tonight.

Heat vs. Thunder First Basket Prop Data

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