NBA MVP Odds 2024: Jokic the favorite, Zion a longshot

Zion Williamson was drafted first overall by the New Orleans Pelicans in the 2019 draft. There have been three unique winners of the NBA's Most Valuable Player award during that span. Williamson has unfortunately not even been in the conversation for any of them, though, as he's struggled to stay healthy.

While the former Duke star has been stellar during his time on the court, his minutes have been scarce as he's battled different injuries. There is widespread hope that he's now turned a corner as he looks to be a key piece for the Pelicans in 2023/24. Whether or not the 23-year-old is able to compete for the most prestigious individual award in the league remains to be seen.

Williamson currently sits at +4000 to win the regular season MVP, according to Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com. He's level with Anthony Davis, Jamal Murray and Domantas Sabonis on oddsboards at 40/1.

Is it worth taking a flyer on the New Orleans star at these long odds? Even though it may sound tempting given the potential payout, I would advise against betting on Williamson to win NBA MVP for numerous reasons.

First and foremost, the North Carolina native has yet to play a full season. This will be Williamson's fifth season in the league since being taken No. 1 out of Duke. He's played in 104 games through four seasons to start in his NBA career. For context, that's just 22 games more than a standard campaign.

Second, as we noted earlier, Williamson has been very good when he's played. However, he's not been elite enough to be named the league's most valuable — or, let's be honest, most outstanding — player. The power forward's best season was 2020/21 when he played in 61 contests and averaged 27 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game.

Typically, NBA MVP winners average one of two things: 30 points per game or a double-double. The last time a player won MVP without accomplishing either of those feats over an entire season was in 2015.

Stephen Curry was named the league MVP in 2014/15 when he posted 23.8 points, 7.7 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game. Curry was also clearly the best player on the best team in the league that season. It would take a historic campaign from Williamson and the Pelicans to replicate those accomplishments in 2024. Thus, the odds are stacked against the 23-year-old in his return.

All of this is meant to highlight how difficult it would be for Williamson to win the award, which the longshot odds reflect. This isn't even touching on his competition — which includes past winners like Giannis Antetokounmpo (+500), Joel Embiid (+850) and Nikola Jokic (+400) — all of whom are still at the top of their games right now.

In conclusion, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about a potential big three in New Orleans with the return of Williamson. There isn't enough evidence to suggest the young star could compete for the aforementioned award, though, which is why I'd recommend staying away from betting on Williamson for MVP.