NBA picks: Grizzlies vs. Nuggets prediction, odds, over/under, spread, injury report for Thursday, Dec. 28

Morant has been ruled out, and you can basically throw everything you think you know about the Grizzlies over the last four games out the window. Even with Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. healthy, Memphis needs Morant to be a real team. The Nuggets are now 9-point favorites, and I’ll take Denver as my ATS pick. The total has gone down to 223 and I still like the over on that one with Morant out.

The Memphis Grizzlies (10-19) will take on the defending champions Denver Nuggets (22-10) in a battle of two teams that seem unstoppable at the moment. The Grizzlies have been buoyed by the return of star point guard Ja Morant, winning the last four games with him in the lineup. The Nuggets are on a five-game winning streak themselves. These teams met earlier this season with Denver winning 108-104, though Morant did not suit up in that game for Memphis.

Morant is listed as questionable for this game with an illness, while Memphis’ usual list of long-term injuries remains the same. Brandon Clarke is close to a return but remains out. Aaron Gordon is out for the Nuggets after sustaining dog bites to his hands and face requiring stitches. He is recovering away from the team.

The Nuggets are 7.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total coming in at 224.5. Denver is -290 on the moneyline while Memphis is +235.

Grizzlies vs. Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: Grizzlies +7.5

The Nuggets are 12-2 straight up at home this season but that has only translated to a 7-6-1 ATS mark. Denver has been favored in 10 straight contests, covering the spread in six of them. The Grizzlies were underdogs in three of their last four games and look like a completely different team with Morant on the floor.

For me, this pick hinges entirely on the point guard’s status. If Morant is able to suit up, this line likely closes a bit but the Grizzlies are the pick to cover. If he’s ruled out, the Nuggets would be worth backing even if this line does climb a bit.

Over/Under: Over 224.5

This pick is also dependent on Morant playing or not. The Grizzlies are 2-2 to the over with him in the lineup, but they’d be 3-1 to the over if this was the line every time. The Nuggets have routinely gone under in their home games and have four unders in their last five, but would be 3-2 to the over if this was the line every time. If Morant plays, take the over. If he sits, this total might dip a bit but the under is likely the move.