NBA picks: Thunder vs. Nuggets prediction, odds, over/under, spread, injury report for Saturday, Dec. 16

The Oklahoma City Thunder (15-8) and Denver Nuggets (17-9) meet Saturday in a battle of the two of the best teams in the Western Conference to start the season. The Thunder have built on a surprising 2022-23 campaign, while the Nuggets have mostly looked the part as defending champions. These teams met once before this season with Denver winning 128-95.

The Thunder are clean on the injury front. Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are both listed as probable for the Nuggets.

The Nuggets are 4.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total coming in at 236.5. Denver is -192 on the moneyline while Oklahoma City is +160.

Thunder vs. Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: Nuggets -4.5

These teams are opposites when it comes to ATS record. The Thunder continue to take advantage of being overlooked by the books with a 15-7-1 ATS mark, while the Nuggets are 11-14-1 against the number. Denver is much better at home with a 6-4-1 ATS mark, and the Nuggets been favored in all those games. They’ve only lost one game at home.

The Thunder are 4-1-1 ATS as a road underdog this season, and 7-4 straight up. Oklahoma City continues to lean on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31 ppg), but Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren have emerged as true complimentary players. Josh Giddey continues to play well amid off-court issues.

I like the Nuggets to defend home court and get a nice benchmark win over a potential playoff opponent. Take Denver to win and cover tonight.

Over/Under: Over 236.5

Oklahoma City is 14-9 to the over this season, while Denver is 11-15. That number changes at home for the Nuggets, who are 5-6 to the over. The Thunder rank fifth in points per game, while the Nuggets sit at 14th. However, Denver’s scoring average rises from 110.3 on the road to 120.5 at home. I like both teams to deliver a strong offensive showing Saturday evening and send this total over 236.5.